NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	78		Excitement	10.6 [56]		MVP	Jannero Pargo (NOK): +17.1%
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	84		Comeback	1.6 [290]		LVP	Grant Hill (ORL): -28.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12	-0.01	0.11	-0.02	13	49%	0.18	2	-0.06	9	56%	-0.16
Hedo Turkoglu	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	13	52%	0.07	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	67%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Pat Garrity	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	6	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	0.00	6	0%	-0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.12	-0.13	0.00	11	42%	0.03	5	-0.28	4	75%	-0.15
Jameer Nelson	-0.28	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.10	-0.18	0.00	17	35%	-0.23	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.28,-0.28	-0.06	-0.22	0.00	7	39%	-0.13	2	-0.15	4	75%	-0.01

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.39,0.34,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.06	0.02	18	66%	0.21	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.02	16	56%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Linton Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	2	67%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	18	44%	0.15	4	-0.24	12	75%	0.08
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.33,-0.25,-0.27	-0.27	-0.18	-0.09	0.00	17	28%	-0.15	3	-0.12	5	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.9	2.8	28.1	15.7	25.0	1.8	36.1	0.7	15.2	152.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOK +60.9%

NOK +1.3%

ORL -13.0%

NOK +3.2%

ORL -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NOK	NBA	ORL	NOK	NBA
this game	15.6	17.0	15.4	79.6	86.6	104.5
season	15.9	16.0		103.4	102.8
opponent	15.3	15.7		104.4	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	14.8	13.9	15.6	17.6	18.2	15.6
NOK	15.9	16.1	18.7	18.4	15.1	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Bogans	33	33	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.09	4	-10	14	17.3	14.8	2.55	17.6	16.7	0.95
Carlos Arroyo	27	27	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.04	2	-8	10	14.4	16.1	-1.76	18.0	16.6	1.41
Tony Battie	40	40	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.12	4	-10	14	14.9	16.1	-1.17	17.3	16.7	0.63
Pat Garrity	10	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-5	4	15.7	15.6	0.06	20.0	16.6	3.41
Keyon Dooling	40	40	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-6	6	15.5	15.8	-0.28	16.4	17.4	-0.99
Grant Hill	73	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-6	6	15.1	17.3	-2.20	16.9	17.1	-0.14
Darko Milicic	52	50	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	7	-20	16.0	15.3	0.72	16.9	17.0	-0.12
Dwight Howard	73	72	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.25	-9	3	-12	15.4	16.4	-1.07	15.9	20.0	-4.02
Hedo Turkoglu	72	72	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.32	-8	2	-10	15.7	15.4	0.35	17.1	16.8	0.30
Jameer Nelson	71	70	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.36	-8	2	-10	16.1	14.4	1.76	16.6	18.0	-1.41

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Brown	69	71	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.23	13	-7	20	15.9	19.7	-3.89	15.8	15.1	0.68
Hilton Armstrong	29	27	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	1	4	18.2	16.5	1.75	16.2	15.4	0.75
Jannero Pargo	65	66	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-4	14	16.8	17.3	-0.54	16.5	13.9	2.63
Rasual Butler	87	87	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.39	0	6	-6	17.4	13.3	4.10	15.5	16.8	-1.32
Desmond Mason	88	88	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.37	0	6	-6	17.4	13.3	4.02	15.8	13.9	1.94
Tyson Chandler	66	70	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.04	1	5	-4	16.9	17.2	-0.31	15.6	15.6	0.00
Marc Jackson	42	43	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	5	-4	16.4	17.4	-1.06	14.1	16.9	-2.80
Linton Johnson	39	38	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.06	0	6	-6	17.4	16.7	0.68	15.1	16.0	-0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.72,0.69,0.75,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.46,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 100, SAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.57,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.78,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.95,0.54,0.45,0.71,0.84,0.84,1	90.5%
MEM 106, SAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.74,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.46,0.69,0.71,0.91,0.98,1	90.4%
CLE 117, NJN 122	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.7,0.8,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.85,0.8,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.45,0.45,0.67,0.74,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.95,0.99,1	89.9%