NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	83		Excitement	7.9 [284]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +28.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	86		Comeback	2.6 [666]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -27.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	7	68%	0.14	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.05
Keyon Dooling	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.00	9	52%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Travis Diener	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Pat Garrity	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.04	-0.04	0.06	9	68%	0.08	3	-0.14	4	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	15	46%	0.01	3	-0.09	7	71%	0.03
Darko Milicic	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.28	-0.13	-0.16	-0.02	8	25%	-0.20	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,0.15,0.28,0.26,0.28	0.28	0.03	0.28	0.02	21	62%	0.51	7	-0.22	10	40%	-0.04
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.00	8	67%	0.15	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	37%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	0.00
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	20	47%	-0.01	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.15	-0.13	-0.01	10	18%	-0.17	2	-0.10	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.6	31.2	15.7	28.2	2.6	38.3	146.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +27.3%

ORL -17.5%

CLE +35.8%

CLE +5.7%

ORL -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CLE	NBA	ORL	CLE	NBA
this game	16.0	16.5	15.4	94.3	96.6	104.5
season	15.9	16.0		103.4	103.2
opponent	15.6	15.7		99.6	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.7	17.8	14.3	17.6	16.0
CLE	16.6	17.3	16.2	15.9	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	40	40	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.22	11	-14	25	15.4	16.6	-1.21	16.2	16.7	-0.46
Carlos Arroyo	40	39	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.19	10	-13	23	15.4	16.6	-1.21	16.6	16.4	0.24
Tony Battie	37	38	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-3	3	17.4	15.1	2.32	16.8	16.3	0.54
Travis Diener	21	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-4	5	15.9	16.1	-0.23	14.3	17.2	-2.91
Pat Garrity	14	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	1	-5	16.2	16.0	0.21	16.3	16.6	-0.29
Trevor Ariza	64	66	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.16	1	-4	5	15.4	17.8	-2.47	17.3	14.3	3.03
Bo Outlaw	20	20	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	-4	1	-5	17.9	15.5	2.48	17.0	16.4	0.64
Darko Milicic	44	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	2	-7	15.4	16.7	-1.25	17.2	15.8	1.38
Dwight Howard	55	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-3	3	16.0	16.1	-0.14	17.1	15.6	1.48
Jameer Nelson	51	52	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.31	-10	7	-17	16.0	16.1	-0.17	15.8	17.5	-1.73
Grant Hill	54	54	-0.90	0.40	-1.31	-0.46	-15	12	-27	16.8	14.8	2.07	15.7	17.7	-1.99

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	60	59	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.53	9	-6	15	16.6	16.3	0.29	16.3	15.4	0.93
Drew Gooden	45	45	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.42	12	-9	21	17.3	15.7	1.67	16.8	15.2	1.66
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	67	68	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.29	16	-13	29	17.7	13.0	4.66	17.0	12.7	4.31
LeBron James	79	79	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	0	3	16.3	18.0	-1.68	16.1	15.6	0.53
Daniel Gibson	52	50	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.44	-3	6	-9	15.6	17.8	-2.14	16.0	16.1	-0.17
Eric Snow	39	39	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	5	-7	16.9	16.2	0.65	16.1	16.0	0.08
Donyell Marshall	29	27	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.07	-3	6	-9	14.6	17.4	-2.90	13.6	17.1	-3.58
Damon Jones	40	40	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	-0.07	-7	10	-17	16.3	16.7	-0.33	15.0	16.9	-1.90
Anderson Varejao	34	33	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	-0.09	-10	13	-23	16.2	16.7	-0.44	15.6	16.3	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.69,0.73,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.86,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 97, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.48,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.96,1	92.4%
CHH 92, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.4,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.98,1	91.9%
CHI 91, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.61,0.71,0.77,0.84,1	91.8%