NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	115		Excitement	6.2 [588]		MVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): +18.2%
Toronto Raptors	120		Comeback	1.3 [575]		LVP	Baron Davis (GSW): -9.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.13	0.01	0.02	10	82%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Keith McLeod	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	0.02	0.06	5	92%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Matt Barnes	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Monta Ellis	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.02	14	76%	0.20	7	-0.19	9	78%	-0.04
Adonal Foyle	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Roberson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.04	3	67%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	11	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	17	51%	0.04	5	-0.13	5	80%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.00	-0.03	15	74%	0.22	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	-0.00	10	67%	0.15	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.02
Jorge Garbajosa	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	13	56%	0.09	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	10	57%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Joey Graham	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	43%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.01	0.04	13	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	13	85%	0.02
PJ Tucker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	0.03	16	47%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.6	30.4	16.0	24.5	1.8	44.3	143.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +20.1%

GSW -0.7%

TOR +20.6%

TOR +11.6%

GSW -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	TOR	NBA	GSW	TOR	NBA
this game	12.0	16.2	15.4	113.9	116.5	104.5
season	13.5	15.2		105.7	104.7
opponent	15.4	15.2		104.1	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.4	13.5	12.8	9.7	12.0
TOR	13.3	17.0	17.8	17.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Diogu	18	19	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.10	0	-5	5	9.8	12.5	-2.73	13.3	16.8	-3.51
Anthony Roberson	23	23	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-9	13	9.4	12.8	-3.40	16.0	16.2	-0.17
Adonal Foyle	3	3	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-1	-3	16.7	11.9	4.79	16.0	16.2	-0.18
Matt Barnes	66	69	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.31	5	-10	15	11.4	13.1	-1.72	15.4	17.6	-2.20
Keith McLeod	39	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-6	7	10.9	12.7	-1.87	15.8	16.4	-0.65
Mickael Pietrus	71	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-1	-3	12.1	11.8	0.36	15.8	17.0	-1.18
Mike Dunleavy	62	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	1	-7	13.1	10.3	2.79	16.3	15.9	0.41
Andris Biedrins	63	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	1	-7	12.7	10.9	1.80	17.0	14.7	2.32
Baron Davis	78	81	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.31	-2	-3	1	12.1	11.8	0.31	16.5	14.9	1.61
Monta Ellis	82	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.14	-13	8	-21	12.6	9.5	3.14	16.9	13.5	3.33

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	67	65	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.31	4	1	3	16.1	16.3	-0.24	11.4	13.1	-1.61
Andrea Bargnani	56	53	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	-5	15	15.6	16.9	-1.36	11.8	12.2	-0.40
Rasho Nesterovic	41	42	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	-3	11	16.0	16.3	-0.37	13.4	11.1	2.29
Anthony Parker	85	84	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.43	-2	7	-9	16.4	15.3	1.02	11.6	13.9	-2.31
Jorge Garbajosa	83	81	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.29	1	4	-3	17.0	12.8	4.13	12.1	11.5	0.65
T.J. Ford	73	72	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.31	0	5	-5	15.2	18.5	-3.23	11.9	12.3	-0.46
Jose Calderon	39	40	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	2	1	18.5	14.7	3.80	11.6	12.3	-0.65
Kris Humphries	27	25	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.07	7	-2	9	16.6	16.0	0.57	12.4	11.9	0.51
Joey Graham	43	42	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	8	-11	14.8	17.1	-2.34	12.5	11.7	0.82
PJ Tucker	1	1	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	8	-11	8.0	16.3	-8.25	21.0	11.9	9.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.95,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 81, NOH 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.73,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.1%
DET 85, CHH 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.89,0.96,1	95.0%
LAC 85, MEM 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.79,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.92,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.85,0.89,0.96,1,1	94.9%