NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	81		Excitement	4.8 [849]		MVP	P.J. Brown (NOH): +8.2%
New Orleans Hornets	92		Comeback	1.3 [1017]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -13.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zeljko Rebraca	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	77%	0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	5	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	6	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bob Sura	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	10	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	12	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	11	56%	0.02	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Chucky Atkins	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	8	38%	-0.06	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	27%	-0.07	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	6	29%	-0.05	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.03	0.02	10	41%	-0.06	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	7	76%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	10	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	65%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.13	-0.01	-0.06	14	38%	-0.00	3	-0.08	6	67%	0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	0.01	-0.02	24	39%	-0.05	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	9	36%	-0.04	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	32.3	15.7	31.1	1.6	32.5	138.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +35.5%

NOH +0.6%

NOH +9.8%

NOH +6.6%

DET -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	NOH	NBA	DET	NOH	NBA
this game	17.0	15.7	15.7	93.1	103.4	100.5
season	16.2	16.0		99.2	99.3
opponent	15.7	16.0		99.4	92.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.8	17.2	16.1	18.2	17.0
NOH	14.5	15.6	15.2	17.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	25	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.16	5	-16	21	18.1	16.6	1.51	17.5	15.0	2.53
Bob Sura	30	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.18	3	-14	17	17.9	16.6	1.35	17.5	14.8	2.72
Chucky Atkins	39	40	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.21	3	-14	17	17.7	16.5	1.22	17.3	14.4	2.96
Zeljko Rebraca	36	37	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-8	5	16.1	17.7	-1.59	16.4	15.2	1.26
Tayshaun Prince	40	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.01	-7	-4	-3	17.1	17.0	0.19	14.5	16.7	-2.29
Corliss Williamson	48	49	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-7	3	17.1	17.0	0.13	16.0	15.3	0.72
Elden Campbell	44	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.06	-8	-3	-5	16.7	17.4	-0.69	15.0	16.4	-1.33
Chauncey Billups	48	49	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	3	-17	16.5	17.7	-1.22	14.4	17.3	-2.96
Richard Hamilton	57	59	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.00	-14	3	-17	16.6	17.9	-1.35	14.8	17.5	-2.72
Ben Wallace	68	72	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.08	-16	5	-21	17.3	16.3	1.00	15.6	16.1	-0.52

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	73	68	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.08	19	-8	27	15.3	17.7	-2.43	17.1	17.0	0.06
Jamaal Magloire	71	70	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.10	18	-7	25	14.7	19.7	-5.05	17.2	16.3	0.93
P.J. Brown	66	64	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.08	14	-3	17	15.4	16.7	-1.29	18.0	14.5	3.43
Darrell Armstrong	54	52	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	1	9	15.7	15.7	-0.08	17.1	17.0	0.12
Stacey Augmon	58	55	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	2	7	15.4	16.2	-0.71	17.3	16.6	0.67
Baron Davis	66	67	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	8	-5	15.9	15.0	0.94	16.8	17.8	-1.04
David West	25	23	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.09	-3	14	-17	17.5	15.0	2.54	16.0	17.4	-1.42
George Lynch	18	21	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.07	-6	17	-23	17.6	15.2	2.40	17.4	16.9	0.50
Robert Traylor	14	15	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.10	-9	20	-29	19.0	15.1	3.92	13.3	17.8	-4.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.73,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 87, CHA 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.63,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.77,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.94,0.89,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.3%
MIL 82, PHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.73,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.95,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%
GSW 115, TOR 120	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.95,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.99,1	95.1%