NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	109		Excitement	6.7 [488]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +24.6%
Los Angeles Lakers	105		Comeback	1.8 [214]		LVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): -13.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.25	0.18	0.10	0.04	30	64%	0.36	3	-0.12	10	80%	0.02
Mo Williams	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.03	-0.04	14	67%	0.18	6	-0.11	5	100%	0.03
Ersan Ilyasova	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	64%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.03	12	58%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	7	44%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	11	36%	-0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	6	67%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Smush Parker	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	9	74%	0.12	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.07	0.00	23	51%	-0.01	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.05
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	16	55%	0.09	4	-0.12	6	83%	0.02
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	12	42%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	11	58%	0.02	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	31.4	15.7	27.3	2.6	35.1	137.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +31.6%

LAL -0.5%

LAL -7.7%

MIL +10.2%

MIL +16.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	LAL	NBA	MIL	LAL	NBA
this game	14.7	14.4	15.4	111.2	105.0	104.5
season	15.2	15.3		105.3	106.3
opponent	14.9	15.5		107.3	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.5	13.7	15.9	13.9	14.7
LAL	13.9	15.1	15.4	13.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	70	73	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.32	7	-3	10	14.7	14.6	0.10	14.9	13.0	1.84
Michael Redd	88	89	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.34	4	0	4	14.7	15.0	-0.32	14.4	14.5	-0.08
Ruben Patterson	56	55	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.14	7	-3	10	14.5	15.0	-0.58	14.4	14.4	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	31	34	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.05	10	-6	16	15.0	14.6	0.37	14.1	14.5	-0.40
Ersan Ilyasova	56	58	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.31	-1	5	-6	14.7	14.8	-0.08	14.2	14.7	-0.54
Charlie Bell	79	79	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.28	-1	5	-6	14.6	15.4	-0.81	14.7	13.3	1.32
Steve Blake	45	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	3	-2	14.7	14.7	-0.01	13.2	15.5	-2.28
Andrew Bogut	65	65	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.27	-7	11	-18	15.0	14.1	0.99	14.7	13.8	0.94

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	84	84	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.32	10	-14	24	14.7	12.9	1.72	14.7	15.1	-0.42
Vladimir Radmanovic	11	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.01	-1	-3	2	14.4	14.4	-0.02	15.8	14.6	1.28
Kwame Brown	53	50	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.21	4	-8	12	13.3	15.6	-2.33	15.6	13.8	1.73
Ronny Turiaf	7	9	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.21	3	-7	10	11.0	14.6	-3.63	14.8	14.7	0.07
Sasha Vujacic	20	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.10	-1	-3	2	12.3	14.9	-2.54	16.2	14.4	1.85
Smush Parker	45	44	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.02	-9	5	-14	15.8	13.2	2.62	14.0	15.3	-1.34
Jordan Farmar	55	54	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.40	5	-9	14	13.2	15.8	-2.62	15.3	14.0	1.34
Andrew Bynum	40	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.04	-11	7	-18	16.4	13.0	3.41	13.6	15.4	-1.83
Luke Walton	62	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.23	-4	0	-4	15.6	12.4	3.24	13.4	16.8	-3.39
Lamar Odom	85	85	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.28	-6	2	-8	14.1	15.9	-1.75	14.7	14.8	-0.15
Maurice Evans	38	35	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	6	-16	13.4	15.0	-1.55	16.0	14.0	2.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.44,0.46,0.57,0.47,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.06,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 88, DET 76	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.31,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.28,0.15,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.02,0.01,0,0	92.3%
PHI 95, ORL 89	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.05,0	92.2%
SAC 110, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.21,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.08,0	92.1%