NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	115		Excitement	6.7 [489]		MVP	Erick Dampier (DAL): +20.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	103		Comeback	3.6 [482]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -5.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Dampier	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.13	0.07	-0.01	11	79%	0.25	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.05
Dirk Nowitzki	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.12	0.04	18	54%	0.17	0	0.00	12	83%	0.03
Devin Harris	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.07	0.02	8	65%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Devean George	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Buckner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	38%	0.02	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	17	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	-0.04	0.05	13	54%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.03	0.02	16	65%	0.15	1	-0.01	8	75%	-0.03
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.02	13	59%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	11	48%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	5	73%	0.05	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Stromile Swift	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.05	13	66%	0.07	3	-0.09	6	83%	-0.01
Lawrence Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	-0.00	6	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.09
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.5	3.4	27.5	16.7	28.1	2.4	35.5	143.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +8.7%

DAL +20.4%

DAL +15.6%

DAL +8.4%

MEM -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MEM	NBA	DAL	MEM	NBA
this game	15.5	15.5	15.4	123.7	110.8	104.5
season	16.3	15.1		108.7	105.1
opponent	15.1	15.2		110.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.0	16.3	16.5	12.7	15.5
MEM	15.0	18.0	15.5	14.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	58	58	0.93	-0.43	1.37	0.20	25	-13	38	14.5	17.1	-2.60	15.1	16.1	-1.02
Jason Terry	73	74	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.16	24	-12	36	14.9	17.4	-2.47	15.2	16.7	-1.48
Dirk Nowitzki	76	75	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.07	22	-10	32	15.0	17.4	-2.39	15.1	17.2	-2.06
Erick Dampier	69	66	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.19	17	-5	22	15.2	16.2	-1.01	14.3	18.4	-4.09
Jerry Stackhouse	62	60	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	8	-4	15.7	14.9	0.79	14.4	17.4	-2.97
Devean George	37	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.13	-5	17	-22	15.4	15.5	-0.14	15.3	15.6	-0.32
DeSagana Diop	21	23	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.05	-8	20	-28	17.3	14.9	2.36	19.8	14.1	5.74
Greg Buckner	31	32	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.06	-9	21	-30	17.4	14.5	2.84	19.3	13.5	5.85
Anthony Johnson	38	39	-0.43	0.93	-1.37	-0.14	-10	22	-32	16.4	14.8	1.62	15.5	15.5	0.06

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	45	44	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.09	7	-19	26	15.4	15.6	-0.25	16.0	15.0	0.98
Kyle Lowry	37	37	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-11	10	15.2	15.7	-0.57	13.0	17.1	-4.04
Hakim Warrick	80	82	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	-9	6	15.3	16.9	-1.65	15.8	12.9	2.90
Rudy Gay	23	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	-2	-8	13.9	16.0	-2.12	16.6	15.1	1.57
Chucky Atkins	49	50	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-4	-4	15.4	15.6	-0.12	16.9	13.8	3.07
Lawrence Roberts	37	36	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-5	-2	17.7	14.1	3.65	15.4	15.5	-0.07
Stromile Swift	64	64	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	-2	-8	14.6	17.4	-2.77	15.4	15.6	-0.18
Mike Miller	67	66	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.10	-13	1	-14	15.5	15.4	0.11	15.5	15.4	0.08
Damon Stoudamire	63	62	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.14	-15	3	-18	16.3	13.9	2.37	14.6	17.3	-2.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.78,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.15,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 95, LAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.73,0.79,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.15,0.04,0	93.6%
SAS 92, MIA 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.04,0.04,0	92.8%
TOR 111, MIN 100	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.68,0.57,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.62,0.54,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.01,0	92.5%