NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	103		Excitement	9.1 [130]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +94.6%
Atlanta Hawks	101		Comeback	11.2 [126]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -38.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.95	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.39,0.95	0.15	0.80	0.00	20	57%	0.95	0	0.00	13	69%	0.11
Charlie Villanueva	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.00	0.02	3	109%	0.11	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Ersan Ilyasova	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	3	58%	0.10	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.05
Ruben Patterson	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	13	55%	0.12	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Steve Blake	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	1	33%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Brian Skinner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	14	50%	-0.01	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	8	68%	0.11	6	-0.23	3	33%	-0.05

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.2,0.25,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.46	0.46	0.17	0.28	-0.00	17	71%	0.48	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.05
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.15	0.03	-0.00	13	78%	0.21	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.37,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.06	0.03	18	69%	0.24	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	6	57%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Freije	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Cedric Bozeman	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.02	-0.04	6	33%	0.00	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.31,-0.31,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39	-0.39	-0.24	-0.16	-0.01	12	14%	-0.25	4	-0.14	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.4	32.3	15.8	32.0	1.8	40.2	151.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -4.1%

MIL +59.4%

ATL -10.1%

ATL -5.0%

MIL +9.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ATL	NBA	MIL	ATL	NBA
this game	13.9	16.9	15.4	109.6	108.6	104.5
season	15.2	16.1		105.3	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.5		106.1	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.4	16.1	13.9	12.0	13.9
ATL	17.9	17.4	13.2	19.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	76	77	1.14	-0.64	1.79	0.50	22	-20	42	13.3	16.2	-2.84	17.6	13.7	3.94
Ruben Patterson	70	69	1.13	-0.63	1.76	0.49	22	-20	42	13.1	16.0	-2.91	17.5	15.4	2.12
Andrew Bogut	78	77	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.48	5	-3	8	13.9	13.7	0.15	17.2	15.6	1.67
Ersan Ilyasova	27	27	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	0	2	11.9	14.7	-2.83	18.5	16.3	2.22
Michael Redd	82	80	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	2	-2	14.2	11.6	2.62	16.9	17.1	-0.15
Charlie Villanueva	27	29	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.05	12	-10	22	13.3	14.1	-0.86	18.9	16.0	2.88
Brian Skinner	28	25	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	4	-6	14.6	13.6	1.05	15.6	17.4	-1.79
Dan Gadzuric	22	22	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	0.02	-12	14	-26	16.1	13.2	2.96	13.5	18.0	-4.45
Charlie Bell	41	42	-0.56	1.06	-1.62	-0.00	-19	21	-40	14.8	13.2	1.61	16.0	17.7	-1.73
Steve Blake	19	17	-0.63	1.13	-1.76	-0.04	-20	22	-42	15.3	13.5	1.81	13.2	17.8	-4.54

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Salim Stoudamire	11	11	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.03	11	-13	24	12.8	17.5	-4.68	12.9	14.0	-1.09
Lorenzen Wright	40	41	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.11	11	-13	24	16.9	17.0	-0.04	14.4	13.4	1.01
Matt Freije	2	2	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	2	-6	15.0	17.0	-1.99	2.0	14.1	-12.13
Cedric Bozeman	20	20	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.10	-13	11	-24	19.1	16.3	2.81	11.4	14.5	-3.08
Shelden Williams	61	61	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-4	6	16.0	18.7	-2.61	13.7	14.2	-0.43
Josh Smith	61	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	7	-16	17.3	16.2	1.11	13.9	13.8	0.04
Tyronn Lue	72	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.57	9	-11	20	16.9	17.0	-0.13	14.5	11.4	3.14
Josh Childress	71	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.51	6	-8	14	17.3	16.0	1.30	14.4	12.0	2.39
Zaza Pachulia	52	53	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.22	-13	11	-24	17.2	16.6	0.60	13.4	14.4	-1.01
Joe Johnson	75	75	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.52	-10	8	-18	17.0	16.7	0.28	13.9	13.8	0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.25,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.28,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.64,0.7,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.81,0.86,0.8,0.67,0.61,0.46,0.57,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 93, CLE 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.48,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.76,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.91,0.74,0	89.4%
HOU 97, SEA 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.14,0.23,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.52,0.78,0.67,0.66,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.85,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.57,0.42,0	89.3%
ORL 96, PHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.53,0.54,0.66,0.81,0.64,0.76,0.74,0	88.1%