NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	5.7 [694]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +13.4%
Charlotte Bobcats	101		Comeback	1.7 [409]		LVP	Earl Boykins (DEN): -13.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.02	0.02	22	65%	0.21	4	-0.08	11	91%	0.02
Andre Miller	0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.02	14	46%	0.08	0	0.00	9	78%	0.02
Joe Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	16	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
DerMarr Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.05	3	-0.07	10	60%	-0.03
Eduardo Najera	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.01	12	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.00	9	20%	-0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.02	0.03	12	62%	0.09	3	-0.07	8	75%	-0.03
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	12	68%	0.11	7	-0.14	7	100%	0.02
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sean May	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	4	37%	-0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	17	38%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	0.04	14	59%	0.07	6	-0.16	9	44%	-0.05
Adam Morrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	8	12%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.5	30.3	16.5	29.6	1.0	38.0	141.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +3.2%

DEN +12.8%

CHA -5.1%

DEN +36.1%

DEN +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHA	NBA	DEN	CHA	NBA
this game	13.3	13.5	15.4	99.1	95.3	104.5
season	14.0	15.7		105.8	101.7
opponent	15.0	15.3		105.6	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	10.8	11.6	17.0	13.3
CHA	15.1	13.2	14.1	11.6	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	77	77	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.17	9	-2	11	13.7	12.3	1.40	13.6	13.1	0.53
Reggie Evans	48	45	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.13	7	0	7	11.8	14.5	-2.63	13.7	13.3	0.42
Earl Boykins	63	59	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	3	1	12.3	14.7	-2.41	12.9	14.3	-1.41
J.R. Smith	80	78	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	5	-3	14.1	11.0	3.14	13.3	14.0	-0.69
Andre Miller	77	75	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	6	-5	13.1	13.8	-0.72	13.5	13.5	-0.04
Joe Smith	51	49	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	4	-1	13.5	13.1	0.46	13.1	13.8	-0.72
Eduardo Najera	58	57	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.16	3	4	-1	13.5	13.0	0.50	13.9	13.0	0.91
DerMarr Johnson	36	33	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	4	-1	12.2	13.8	-1.57	13.8	13.3	0.52
Marcus Camby	55	57	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	4	-1	14.5	12.1	2.36	13.7	13.2	0.49

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean May	39	42	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-3	-1	14.4	13.0	1.41	13.3	13.3	0.01
Jake Voskuhl	19	20	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-4	1	13.0	13.6	-0.60	10.5	13.9	-3.37
Othella Harrington	12	12	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-3	-1	14.4	13.4	1.04	11.7	13.5	-1.84
Alan Anderson	25	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-7	7	12.3	13.9	-1.58	15.1	12.7	2.40
Matt Carroll	29	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-6	5	12.2	14.0	-1.81	12.7	13.5	-0.78
Melvin Ely	26	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.07	-4	-3	-1	14.4	13.2	1.18	10.8	14.1	-3.23
Raymond Felton	72	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-5	3	13.9	12.6	1.24	13.1	13.7	-0.52
Brevin Knight	84	84	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.27	-1	-6	5	13.4	14.0	-0.64	13.5	12.5	1.02
Gerald Wallace	83	85	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-7	7	13.5	13.4	0.07	13.4	13.0	0.39
Emeka Okafor	87	89	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-3	-1	13.6	13.0	0.60	13.9	10.5	3.37
Adam Morrison	54	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	5	-17	13.1	13.9	-0.74	14.0	12.6	1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, NJN 89	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.2%
OKC 121, DAL 116	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.06,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.04,0	95.0%
IND 125, MIL 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%