NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	87		Excitement	8.7 [178]		MVP	James Posey (MIA): +47.6%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	12.3 [166]		LVP	Damien Wilkins (SEA): -30.7%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.14	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.10	0.01	17	61%	0.22	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12	-0.07	0.15	-0.04	17	45%	0.22	4	-0.10	6	67%	-0.05
Danny Fortson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.14	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Nick Collison	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	6	67%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	8	50%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Wilcox	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Luke Ridnour	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	6	23%	-0.06	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.31	-0.10	-0.21	-0.01	7	44%	-0.03	5	-0.28	4	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.48	0.48	0.05	0.41	-0.02	4	75%	0.48	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.06,-0.13,0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.08	-0.01	23	49%	0.27	7	-0.24	17	82%	0.05
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	7	65%	0.05	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.09
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	14	40%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Wayne Simien	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	12	33%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.09	-0.01	10	46%	0.00	2	-0.12	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	2.7	30.2	16.4	29.6	1.7	35.3	145.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +5.8%

MIA +3.0%

MIA +4.6%

MIA +19.2%

MIA +17.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	MIA	NBA	SEA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	16.1	15.4	95.6	97.8	104.5
season	15.4	16.0		105.5	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.4		104.3	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.0	16.0	18.7	13.8	15.4
MIA	16.8	15.3	14.0	18.3	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	51	53	0.38	-0.88	1.26	0.26	4	-7	11	15.5	15.2	0.25	16.6	15.4	1.26
Danny Fortson	30	30	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.18	10	-13	23	16.4	14.8	1.60	16.2	16.1	0.14
Johan Petro	25	27	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.10	-7	4	-11	14.6	15.7	-1.05	15.0	16.6	-1.62
Luke Ridnour	49	52	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	0	-3	15.7	15.0	0.76	15.5	16.9	-1.49
Earl Watson	56	56	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.48	5	-8	13	15.3	15.4	-0.06	16.3	15.7	0.59
Damien Wilkins	43	40	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-3	3	14.6	16.0	-1.44	16.9	15.5	1.49
Ray Allen	73	74	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.32	-6	3	-9	15.0	16.7	-1.63	16.4	14.9	1.52
Rashard Lewis	78	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.42	-5	2	-7	15.4	14.9	0.51	16.2	15.6	0.57
Chris Wilcox	50	49	-0.98	0.48	-1.46	-0.60	-13	10	-23	15.7	15.0	0.70	15.3	17.1	-1.80

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	63	64	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.60	9	-6	15	16.3	15.7	0.66	15.0	16.3	-1.33
Dorell Wright	48	50	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.35	12	-9	21	16.4	15.8	0.51	16.5	14.0	2.44
Dwyane Wade	83	82	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.34	12	-9	21	15.3	23.3	-8.01	15.7	12.6	3.12
Gary Payton	80	79	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.42	-2	5	-7	16.5	13.2	3.38	15.6	13.6	2.05
Alonzo Mourning	58	57	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.06	2	1	1	16.2	16.0	0.13	15.6	14.9	0.77
James Posey	43	45	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.41	-11	14	-25	16.5	15.7	0.80	13.8	16.9	-3.14
Antoine Walker	63	57	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.16	1	2	-1	16.4	15.6	0.81	15.8	14.6	1.28
Wayne Simien	22	21	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	11	-19	14.6	16.6	-1.94	13.0	16.1	-3.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.53,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.14,0.09,0.23,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 91, LAC 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.22,0.26,1	90.7%
TOR 93, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.15,0.16,0.3,0.19,0.26,0.39,0.27,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.53,0.58,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.55,0.43,0.42,1	89.3%
BOS 91, CHA 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.47,0.28,0.16,0.26,1	89.1%