NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	98		Excitement	4.0 [1035]		MVP	Ray Allen (SEA): +20.8%
Seattle SuperSonics	109		Comeback	1.1 [1220]		LVP	Reggie Evans (DEN): -12.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DerMarr Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	20	55%	0.08	5	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ruben Patterson	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	12	57%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	17	44%	0.04	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Andre Miller	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	9	55%	0.03	5	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Howard Eisley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	13	46%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	9	60%	-0.00	7	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.19	0.02	0.01	17	75%	0.22	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	9	68%	0.08	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	12	54%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	61%	0.07	3	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	8	56%	0.02	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Noel Felix	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	67%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	4	40%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	8	33%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.7	32.0	16.8	27.3	2.6	38.2	142.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +31.3%

SEA +10.5%

DEN -13.8%

SEA +21.8%

SEA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SEA	NBA	DEN	SEA	NBA
this game	13.5	14.2	15.6	94.2	104.8	104.4
season	14.4	15.0		103.5	108.9
opponent	15.8	15.9		112.2	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.8	13.2	12.2	12.1	13.5
SEA	13.2	11.3	17.8	15.1	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	21	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-13	15	15.9	12.9	2.92	11.5	14.8	-3.31
Andre Miller	36	37	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	-3	-5	14.4	13.1	1.32	15.0	13.7	1.26
Howard Eisley	68	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-8	5	13.1	14.4	-1.32	13.7	15.0	-1.26
DerMarr Johnson	84	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-4	-3	13.1	15.1	-2.01	14.4	13.4	0.98
Ruben Patterson	68	68	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-5	-1	14.3	12.1	2.17	15.2	12.2	3.05
Linas Kleiza	76	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-5	-1	12.8	15.5	-2.70	13.7	15.5	-1.78
Reggie Evans	86	85	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.14	-9	-2	-7	13.4	14.1	-0.70	14.6	12.4	2.20
Francisco Elson	81	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.02	-18	7	-25	13.5	13.6	-0.10	13.8	15.6	-1.81

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wilcox	67	66	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.05	18	-7	25	14.1	14.3	-0.21	14.1	12.5	1.58
Luke Ridnour	69	69	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.06	18	-7	25	14.1	14.2	-0.10	13.6	13.4	0.15
Rashard Lewis	92	92	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.24	7	4	3	14.9	8.5	6.40	13.7	12.6	1.07
Ray Allen	54	52	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.10	18	-7	25	14.4	13.9	0.51	14.2	12.9	1.29
Johan Petro	83	84	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.20	6	5	1	14.9	11.3	3.55	13.5	13.5	-0.03
Nick Collison	33	34	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	10	-9	12.5	15.0	-2.50	12.4	14.1	-1.66
Earl Watson	57	57	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.34	-8	19	-27	14.3	14.0	0.34	13.1	14.0	-0.90
Mike Wilks	8	8	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	8	-5	7.6	14.7	-7.08	11.2	13.7	-2.47
Mikki Moore	25	24	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.13	-3	14	-17	14.2	14.1	0.10	13.5	13.5	0.02
Damien Wilkins	29	30	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.18	-6	17	-23	14.0	14.2	-0.18	14.2	13.3	0.94
Noel Felix	3	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	10	-9	3.7	14.5	-10.81	6.7	13.8	-7.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.92,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 74, CLE 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
LAL 90, ORL 109	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.74,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.86,0.88,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
WAS 74, CLE 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.87,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%