NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	99		Excitement	8.2 [244]		MVP	Antawn Jamison (WAS): +21.9%
San Antonio Spurs	106		Comeback	5.7 [405]		LVP	Jared Jeffries (WAS): -14.1%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.09	0.01	19	65%	0.25	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.08
Caron Butler	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.2	0.08	0.13	0.01	15	57%	0.22	1	-0.02	7	86%	-0.00
Etan Thomas	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	18	60%	0.18	4	-0.13	16	69%	-0.06
Antonio Daniels	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.05
Billy Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donell Taylor	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	4	20%	-0.04	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,0.1,0.21	0.21	0.11	0.13	0.03	10	63%	0.25	1	-0.04	15	73%	0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.13	-0.00	17	62%	0.32	4	-0.13	11	73%	-0.02
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	4	87%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.05	-0.00	8	53%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	7	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	12	52%	0.06	2	-0.06	7	57%	-0.06
Rasho Nesterovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	9	42%	0.01	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.04
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	7	29%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	3.3	31.6	16.6	31.2	2.6	47.0	155.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS -9.0%

SAS +25.1%

SAS +37.5%

WAS -1.3%

WAS -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	SAS	NBA	WAS	SAS	NBA
this game	14.8	16.3	15.6	107.6	114.0	104.4
season	15.1	16.3		107.4	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.6		99.4	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.7	16.2	13.4	14.1	14.8
SAS	20.3	15.1	15.4	15.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	52	51	0.43	-0.93	1.35	0.02	14	-21	35	15.6	13.7	1.89	18.0	14.4	3.60
Donell Taylor	9	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-2	-3	15.1	14.8	0.35	14.0	16.6	-2.61
Calvin Booth	5	5	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.00	-5	-2	-3	15.2	14.8	0.43	15.0	16.4	-1.41
Michael Ruffin	10	10	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.02	-7	0	-7	17.4	14.5	2.92	14.3	16.6	-2.28
Antonio Daniels	67	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-3	-1	14.4	15.9	-1.49	15.9	17.5	-1.63
Billy Thomas	2	1	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-2	-3	11.0	14.9	-3.88	18.0	16.3	1.68
Antawn Jamison	87	86	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-8	9	15.0	11.4	3.59	16.9	9.6	7.31
Caron Butler	79	81	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.30	-2	-5	3	14.5	16.8	-2.39	16.4	15.7	0.77
Gilbert Arenas	87	88	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-4	1	14.6	18.4	-3.81	16.4	15.6	0.78
Jared Jeffries	62	64	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.29	-19	12	-31	14.6	15.2	-0.55	15.3	18.6	-3.22

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	71	70	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.24	14	-7	21	15.6	18.6	-2.96	14.9	14.5	0.39
Michael Finley	55	55	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.38	8	-1	9	15.7	17.2	-1.53	13.4	16.8	-3.37
Tim Duncan	58	59	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.13	15	-8	23	16.1	16.7	-0.61	16.6	11.6	4.97
Bruce Bowen	77	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	3	1	17.1	12.7	4.33	14.8	14.9	-0.10
Brent Barry	40	39	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.13	10	-3	13	15.9	16.7	-0.76	15.5	14.2	1.29
Manu Ginobili	63	62	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	-4	15	15.2	18.8	-3.59	15.5	13.4	2.12
Nazr Mohammed	42	42	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	1	5	17.4	15.5	1.91	14.5	15.0	-0.54
Nick Van Exel	19	20	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.09	-8	15	-23	18.9	15.7	3.22	13.4	15.2	-1.72
Robert Horry	32	30	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.02	-11	18	-29	17.7	15.6	2.02	13.3	15.5	-2.17
Rasho Nesterovic	8	7	-0.47	0.97	-1.45	-0.06	-14	21	-35	15.7	16.4	-0.64	11.3	15.1	-3.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.48,0.38,0.23,0.26,0.18,0.3,0.26,0.33,0.43,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.55,0.85,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 94, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.25,0.15,0.22,0.38,0.58,0.42,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.81,0.71,0.96,0.96,1	92.4%
HOU 96, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.64,0.6,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.84,0.9,1	91.9%
MIN 90, GSW 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.6,0.78,0.62,0.64,0.78,0.92,1	91.8%