NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	96		Excitement	7.4 [387]		MVP	Darius Songaila (SAC): +21.9%
Sacramento Kings	102		Comeback	2.9 [714]		LVP	Chris Webber (SAC): -24.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.06	0.00	5	108%	0.24	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Andre Barrett	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.06	-0.03	0.05	-0.03	22	53%	0.15	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	8	65%	0.15	3	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Scott Padgett	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	0.05	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Taylor	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.19	-0.00	-0.16	0.02	19	60%	0.05	4	-0.24	10	90%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.15	-0.00	5	83%	0.22	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.09	0.00	14	60%	0.22	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	-0.01	0.01	15	67%	0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.01	10	55%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	2	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01	10	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16	-0.16	-0.06	-0.09	0.01	11	42%	-0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25	-0.25	-0.19	-0.06	-0.01	17	27%	-0.21	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	27.3	15.4	24.4	2.5	33.5	129.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU -30.4%

SAC +19.1%

SAC +8.6%

SAC +55.6%

HOU -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAC	NBA	HOU	SAC	NBA
this game	16.1	16.1	15.5	106.7	114.6	104.0
season	16.0	14.7		104.2	108.1
opponent	15.6	15.8		106.4	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.0	19.4	15.2	14.8	16.1
SAC	16.3	14.0	16.8	17.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Padgett	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-6	6	0.0	16.1	-16.08	0.0	16.3	-16.28
Dikembe Mutombo	19	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.01	-2	-4	2	16.4	16.0	0.44	16.2	16.1	0.17
Andre Barrett	36	32	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-6	6	16.3	15.9	0.38	16.4	15.9	0.43
Bostjan Nachbar	6	5	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	0	-6	12.2	16.4	-4.19	13.2	16.3	-3.07
Juwan Howard	33	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-4	2	19.0	14.4	4.61	15.5	16.5	-0.99
Maurice Taylor	62	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-5	4	15.0	18.5	-3.46	16.5	15.1	1.39
Jim Jackson	80	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-4	2	15.7	19.3	-3.62	16.2	14.9	1.35
Tracy McGrady	80	80	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-3	0	16.4	13.7	2.68	16.2	15.2	0.98
Yao Ming	66	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.28	-7	1	-8	15.5	17.6	-2.05	16.2	15.7	0.48
Tyronn Lue	68	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.31	-7	1	-8	16.4	15.0	1.43	15.9	16.7	-0.77

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Jackson	44	47	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.33	13	-7	20	16.4	15.8	0.65	16.0	16.1	-0.12
Peja Stojakovic	81	81	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	-1	8	16.2	15.2	0.94	15.8	18.9	-3.12
Brad Miller	61	60	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	3	0	16.0	16.3	-0.27	16.3	15.6	0.67
Darius Songaila	27	28	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.12	10	-4	14	15.1	16.5	-1.42	17.7	15.3	2.43
Mike Bibby	71	71	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	6	-6	16.4	14.8	1.66	16.5	14.3	2.23
Chris Webber	61	62	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.20	-4	10	-14	16.8	14.6	2.23	15.3	17.7	-2.43
Greg Ostertag	28	30	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	3	0	16.3	16.0	0.27	15.6	16.3	-0.67
Doug Christie	62	60	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	6	-6	15.4	17.8	-2.41	15.6	17.0	-1.33
Matt Barnes	10	11	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	8	-10	14.5	16.3	-1.80	18.0	15.8	2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.64,0.6,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.84,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 90, GSW 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.6,0.78,0.62,0.64,0.78,0.92,1	93.9%
DAL 103, LAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.37,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.57,0.47,0.58,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.74,0.86,0.95,1	92.4%
BKN 95, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.55,0.84,0.95,1	92.3%