NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	91		Excitement	1.4 [843]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): +15.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	103		Comeback	2.0 [816]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -11.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.01	-0.05	9	78%	0.16	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.03	0.03	-0.07	8	55%	0.11	3	-0.04	6	33%	-0.04
Carlos Arroyo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	56%	0.09	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Hedo Turkoglu	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.04	10	60%	0.01	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	6	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Keyon Dooling	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	5	60%	0.03	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	13	36%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.04	0.03	13	43%	-0.09	2	-0.03	9	33%	-0.09

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.00	17	66%	0.19	2	-0.04	7	71%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	2	100%	0.13	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	22	52%	0.17	4	-0.12	6	83%	-0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.00	4	100%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	14	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	0.05	8	54%	-0.01	1	-0.04	8	62%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.5	30.2	15.8	29.8	2.7	28.3	130.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +51.3%

ORL -0.8%

ORL -4.9%

ORL -4.1%

MIN +8.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIN	NBA	ORL	MIN	NBA
this game	15.9	16.3	15.6	101.1	115.7	104.4
season	16.4	16.1		104.4	101.0
opponent	15.9	15.7		103.1	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.3	14.9	17.4	14.3	15.9
MIN	18.7	17.2	14.5	15.1	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Battie	46	45	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-7	2	17.2	14.5	2.65	17.3	15.2	2.08
DeShawn Stevenson	52	51	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	-9	6	16.1	15.6	0.46	17.1	15.2	1.96
Trevor Ariza	22	21	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	-7	2	15.0	16.2	-1.13	15.8	16.4	-0.62
Carlos Arroyo	41	43	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.19	-1	-11	10	14.9	16.8	-1.92	15.8	16.7	-0.95
Bo Outlaw	9	9	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	-6	0	14.9	16.0	-1.12	15.4	16.4	-0.93
Jameer Nelson	49	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.04	-11	-1	-10	16.8	14.9	1.92	16.7	15.8	0.95
Dwight Howard	76	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-6	0	16.1	14.8	1.32	16.5	15.0	1.50
Hedo Turkoglu	62	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	-11	-1	-10	16.3	15.0	1.36	16.1	16.8	-0.69
Keyon Dooling	44	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-7	2	15.5	16.3	-0.78	15.8	16.7	-0.90
Darko Milicic	49	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.19	-7	-5	-2	14.6	17.5	-2.96	15.1	17.6	-2.51

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	76	77	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.07	15	-3	18	16.1	17.3	-1.20	16.1	14.8	1.32
Marcus Banks	60	61	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-1	14	16.1	16.7	-0.66	16.1	15.4	0.77
Rashad McCants	76	77	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.10	11	1	10	16.0	17.7	-1.65	16.4	13.2	3.12
Ricky Davis	79	80	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.04	10	2	8	16.6	13.9	2.68	15.9	16.2	-0.34
Eddie Griffin	28	29	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.05	7	5	2	15.4	16.7	-1.35	15.6	16.0	-0.46
Mark Blount	67	67	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.08	4	8	-4	16.8	14.8	1.94	15.9	16.0	-0.13
Anthony Carter	9	9	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	8	-4	15.9	16.3	-0.44	14.9	16.0	-1.12
Marko Jaric	32	32	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.12	1	11	-10	16.1	16.4	-0.24	15.2	16.3	-1.01
Mark Madsen	5	5	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	10	-8	18.0	16.2	1.82	14.4	16.0	-1.59
Justin Reed	13	13	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.12	-7	19	-26	17.4	16.1	1.29	14.9	16.1	-1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.91,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 75, PHI 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	93.7%
MIA 76, ORL 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.5%
POR 101, DEN 109	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.94,1,0.99,1,1,1	93.4%