NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	105		Excitement	5.7 [677]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +18.7%
Toronto Raptors	98		Comeback	1.0 [670]		LVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): -9.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.03	0.03	10	87%	0.24	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.18	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.02	0.06	-0.09	20	51%	0.18	2	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.01	12	57%	0.10	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.05
Rasheed Wallace	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	10	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	11	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	13	61%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Evans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.00	7	64%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0.07,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	-0.00	-0.04	20	57%	0.19	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	0.03	0.08	14	82%	0.13	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	11	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Pape Sow	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	5	27%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Darrick Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	18	37%	-0.06	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.7	28.1	15.6	22.7	1.6	28.4	121.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +31.8%

DET +4.0%

TOR -1.5%

DET +11.9%

DET +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	16.6	15.7	15.6	116.7	111.4	104.4
season	16.9	15.6		108.3	107.3
opponent	15.4	15.8		110.5	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.2	17.7	16.5	17.1	16.6
TOR	16.8	16.6	16.2	13.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	71	68	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.25	13	-6	19	16.8	15.9	0.92	16.6	12.8	3.72
Antonio McDyess	60	61	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.25	10	-3	13	17.1	15.7	1.43	15.0	17.3	-2.26
Richard Hamilton	63	63	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	2	3	16.1	17.8	-1.65	15.2	17.0	-1.78
Rasheed Wallace	44	43	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.12	6	1	5	16.8	16.4	0.43	17.3	14.2	3.13
Tony Delk	42	41	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	6	-5	16.0	17.2	-1.21	15.5	15.9	-0.45
Tayshaun Prince	67	63	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.16	1	6	-5	16.4	17.2	-0.74	15.2	17.2	-2.00
Maurice Evans	29	30	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.14	1	6	-5	17.7	16.1	1.57	16.1	15.5	0.62
Ben Wallace	74	71	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.21	-2	9	-11	16.5	17.4	-0.92	15.5	16.8	-1.36

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Barrett	27	28	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.13	6	-13	19	15.1	16.0	-0.84	17.3	16.3	0.96
Darrick Martin	12	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.04	-3	-4	1	15.5	15.8	-0.26	15.4	16.8	-1.43
Pape Sow	22	22	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.09	-7	0	-7	17.9	15.0	2.91	14.7	17.2	-2.51
Charlie Villanueva	47	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	0	-7	17.4	13.8	3.65	16.5	16.7	-0.17
Joey Graham	57	58	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-6	5	14.9	17.3	-2.46	16.9	16.2	0.67
Matt Bonner	64	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-5	3	15.1	17.5	-2.44	17.6	14.1	3.46
Mike James	77	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.28	-5	-2	-3	15.3	18.9	-3.64	16.7	16.0	0.72
Morris Peterson	60	63	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	0	-7	15.4	16.4	-0.92	16.6	16.7	-0.17
Chris Bosh	74	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.22	-9	2	-11	16.2	13.2	2.99	16.1	19.7	-3.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.42,0.45,0.32,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.33,0.23,0.22,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 98, BOS 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.21,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.8%
DEN 105, SAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.27,0.17,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.8%
DAL 96, HOU 86	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.21,0.26,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.25,0.38,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0	93.6%