NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	83		Excitement	6.2 [580]		MVP	Danny Granger (IND): +31.6%
Indiana Pacers	97		Comeback	1.6 [967]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): -14.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	53%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	10	42%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Stacey Augmon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.05	-0.04	0.04	17	59%	0.01	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Keyon Dooling	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.04	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	12	33%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	7	44%	-0.00	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.17	0.14	-0.00	12	75%	0.32	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
David Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.00	0.12	-0.03	10	54%	0.19	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.07
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.06	0.06	11	75%	0.15	2	-0.05	6	83%	-0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	11	54%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Eddie Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	7	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	8	17%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.07	0.03	11	43%	-0.08	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.8	26.8	15.8	25.5	2.4	34.5	130.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +46.4%

ORL -1.8%

IND +1.2%

IND +3.9%

IND +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	16.0	15.5	15.6	91.2	105.4	104.4
season	16.4	16.0		104.4	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.7		100.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.3	15.8	15.9	18.4	16.0
IND	14.5	15.5	14.8	17.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	68	69	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.03	2	-16	18	15.7	16.7	-1.03	15.8	14.6	1.26
Jameer Nelson	54	55	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-12	10	15.3	16.9	-1.56	14.7	16.7	-1.95
Hedo Turkoglu	69	71	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-11	8	15.0	19.0	-3.94	14.7	18.2	-3.53
DeShawn Stevenson	59	60	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-10	6	14.6	18.5	-3.86	14.5	17.4	-2.95
Tony Battie	52	51	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.23	0	-14	14	16.4	15.4	1.02	15.6	15.4	0.22
Bo Outlaw	10	11	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	-4	-6	16.5	15.9	0.60	14.0	15.7	-1.72
Stacey Augmon	22	21	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-3	-8	19.0	15.0	3.94	18.2	14.7	3.53
Darko Milicic	44	44	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	-3	-8	16.4	15.6	0.77	15.9	15.1	0.81
Carlos Arroyo	43	43	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.03	-17	3	-20	15.9	16.0	-0.11	15.1	15.9	-0.78
Keyon Dooling	34	35	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.13	-14	0	-14	18.6	14.4	4.18	18.2	13.9	4.34

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Granger	57	56	0.72	-0.22	0.95	-0.01	25	-11	36	15.4	15.7	-0.33	16.0	15.9	0.04
Jamaal Tinsley	51	49	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.18	23	-9	32	13.8	17.6	-3.74	14.8	17.4	-2.58
Peja Stojakovic	66	63	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.14	11	3	8	16.4	13.2	3.18	16.4	14.9	1.50
David Harrison	50	48	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.07	12	2	10	15.9	15.1	0.81	15.8	16.2	-0.37
Fred Jones	45	45	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.13	9	5	4	16.5	14.6	1.96	15.8	16.1	-0.24
Anthony Johnson	57	57	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.18	2	12	-10	16.3	14.3	1.98	16.8	14.5	2.34
Jeff Foster	50	50	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	13	-12	15.1	16.0	-0.81	15.7	16.3	-0.68
Eddie Gill	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	12	-10	2.8	16.2	-13.44	8.0	16.4	-8.43
Stephen Jackson	52	54	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	19	-24	15.5	15.5	0.06	16.4	15.3	1.13
Scot Pollard	27	28	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.10	-10	24	-34	15.8	15.4	0.38	16.8	15.6	1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 93, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.73,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.53,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.43,0.53,0.58,0.7,0.81,0.9,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1	93.2%
BOS 77, CLE 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.6%
ATL 84, CHI 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.98,1	92.6%