NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	92		Excitement	6.2 [585]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +23.2%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	13.1 [196]		LVP	Anderson Varejao (CLE): -17.4%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.23	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.23	0.11	0.12	-0.01	27	57%	0.33	5	-0.10	28	86%	0.04
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	-0.01	0.01	14	68%	0.12	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Donyell Marshall	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	8	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Drew Gooden	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	9	45%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Anderson Varejao	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	-0.00	4	0%	-0.11	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.12	0.00	7	80%	0.26	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18	0.18	0.03	0.14	-0.01	9	70%	0.25	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	43%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.03	26	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	18	72%	-0.03
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	3	12%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	14	55%	0.04	5	-0.11	5	80%	-0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	302.3	2.7	35.2	17.0	31.2	3.7	41.2	433.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.6%

CLE -4.0%

MIA +13.1%

CLE -1.1%

CLE -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIA	NBA	CLE	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	14.2	15.6	96.8	103.2	104.4
season	16.2	15.5		105.6	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.5		102.3	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.2	16.4	17.5	16.4	16.1
MIA	14.0	15.6	14.4	13.0	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ira Newble	6	7	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-3	0	15.0	16.2	-1.17	11.6	14.4	-2.86
Anderson Varejao	25	26	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-3	0	16.3	16.0	0.31	13.7	14.4	-0.68
Alan Henderson	15	14	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	0	-6	15.3	16.2	-0.90	12.4	14.5	-2.19
Eric Snow	69	70	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.34	6	-12	18	16.5	14.9	1.61	15.1	11.7	3.45
Donyell Marshall	32	31	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	3	-12	16.9	15.7	1.18	12.5	15.0	-2.53
Drew Gooden	53	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-8	10	15.5	16.9	-1.37	15.5	12.5	3.05
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	65	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-10	14	16.3	15.7	0.63	14.5	13.5	1.01
Damon Jones	41	39	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.14	-7	1	-8	16.2	16.0	0.26	13.6	14.7	-1.07
Ronald Murray	79	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.17	-7	1	-8	15.8	17.5	-1.69	14.1	14.7	-0.56
LeBron James	90	90	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.35	-7	1	-8	16.0	17.6	-1.59	14.1	16.8	-2.72

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	44	46	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.29	23	-17	40	13.1	15.2	-2.02	17.3	14.9	2.43
Derek Anderson	46	47	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.33	18	-12	30	13.0	15.3	-2.33	16.9	15.4	1.50
Antoine Walker	56	55	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.24	21	-15	36	13.4	15.4	-2.02	16.7	15.3	1.42
Gary Payton	63	63	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.25	17	-11	28	13.2	16.3	-3.15	16.5	15.2	1.32
Dwyane Wade	90	90	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.32	9	-3	12	14.1	16.8	-2.72	16.0	17.6	-1.59
James Posey	38	38	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	0.03	-11	17	-28	15.6	13.3	2.35	15.5	16.5	-0.99
Udonis Haslem	39	38	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	0.02	-13	19	-32	14.4	14.1	0.23	14.4	17.2	-2.88
Shaquille O'Neal	56	55	-0.41	0.91	-1.33	0.06	-16	22	-38	15.8	12.0	3.77	15.7	16.6	-0.92
Jason Williams	43	43	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	0.10	-18	24	-42	16.2	12.6	3.55	15.2	16.8	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.17,0.23,0.25,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.14,0.2,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.82,0.9,0.99,0.95,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 85, SAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.32,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.12,0.26,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.73,0.8,0.89,0.99,1,1	93.1%
CHI 91, TOR 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.53,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.97,1	92.8%
SAC 90, VAN 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.29,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.95,1,1	92.3%