NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	6.2 [576]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +18.3%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	7.9 [468]		LVP	Alvin Williams (TOR): -15.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Fizer	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	14	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Trenton Hassell	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	17	59%	0.05	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
Charles Oakley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ron Mercer	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	15	41%	0.02	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Ollie	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Metta World Peace	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	6	33%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	11	38%	-0.03	2	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18	0.18	-0.00	0.17	-0.01	24	57%	0.30	4	-0.11	10	70%	0.10
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.00	8	56%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	10	60%	0.06	3	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.01	6	61%	0.00	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.03
Morris Peterson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	6	44%	-0.02	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	-0.02	17	29%	-0.07	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.4	26.4	15.4	21.4	2.3	36.3	127.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +21.1%

TOR +0.5%

TOR +32.1%

CHI -3.1%

CHI -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	15.4	15.6	15.6	97.8	103.2	102.3
season	15.6	16.2		96.3	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.6		100.9	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.5	15.2	17.3	15.9	15.4
TOR	14.2	16.9	17.0	14.8	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	22	24	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-3	1	18.2	14.5	3.75	15.7	15.6	0.20
Tyson Chandler	16	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.10	-7	2	-9	15.9	15.2	0.69	11.6	16.4	-4.88
Greg Anthony	60	61	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-9	13	14.2	17.4	-3.19	15.7	15.4	0.25
Charles Oakley	21	23	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.05	-9	4	-13	19.5	14.2	5.31	15.0	15.8	-0.74
Marcus Fizer	70	69	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.48	8	-13	21	14.5	18.1	-3.67	17.0	11.7	5.30
Kevin Ollie	33	32	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.12	-9	4	-13	17.4	14.2	3.19	15.4	15.7	-0.25
Brad Miller	79	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	-3	1	15.0	17.6	-2.68	15.4	16.7	-1.35
Trenton Hassell	83	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.39	-2	-3	1	14.9	19.2	-4.30	15.8	14.0	1.82
Ron Mercer	81	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.33	-6	1	-7	15.1	17.4	-2.35	15.3	17.2	-1.89

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	55	54	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.28	21	-16	37	15.2	16.1	-0.90	16.2	14.3	1.91
Dell Curry	43	43	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.33	13	-8	21	14.6	16.5	-1.86	15.5	15.2	0.27
Vince Carter	86	87	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.33	7	-2	9	15.2	20.7	-5.53	15.5	12.8	2.71
Antonio Davis	87	86	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	3	-1	15.8	13.3	2.43	15.1	18.1	-3.00
Alvin Williams	80	79	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.51	-3	8	-11	16.3	11.2	5.08	15.1	17.1	-2.01
Keon Clark	33	33	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.19	10	-5	15	13.3	16.9	-3.56	16.3	14.8	1.50
Carlos Arroyo	20	20	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.14	6	-1	7	14.5	15.9	-1.34	15.8	15.2	0.55
Eric Montross	18	19	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	0.17	-17	22	-39	18.8	14.8	4.01	13.9	15.7	-1.78
Morris Peterson	43	44	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	0.05	-14	19	-33	17.2	14.3	2.90	14.6	16.1	-1.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.53,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 92, MIA 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.17,0.23,0.25,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.14,0.2,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.82,0.9,0.99,0.95,0.96,1	92.8%
OKC 111, HOU 115	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.18,0.1,0.16,0.28,0.38,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.78,0.69,0.63,0.94,1,1	92.5%
PHX 104, OKC 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.13,0.16,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.52,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	92.3%