NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	111		Excitement	5.9 [642]		MVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): +30.4%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	1.3 [446]		LVP	Antoine Walker (MIA): -11.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.30	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.26	0.03	-0.02	26	71%	0.36	3	-0.06	10	40%	-0.08
Troy Murphy	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.04	-0.01	12	64%	0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Zarko Cabarkapa	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	83%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Adonal Foyle	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.05	-0.01	10	50%	0.09	4	-0.09	8	62%	0.01
Monta Ellis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Baron Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	12	43%	-0.00	3	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.01	6	83%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.22	-0.02	0.08	20	74%	0.24	5	-0.12	17	71%	-0.04
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	37%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	15	58%	0.08	4	-0.08	6	50%	-0.04
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	9	39%	-0.00	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	6	25%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.04	0.05	9	53%	-0.01	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	35.3	15.7	29.6	1.8	37.5	147.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +29.5%

MIA -9.5%

GSW +0.9%

GSW +20.4%

GSW +8.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	14.6	15.6	114.4	108.2	104.4
season	14.8	15.5		102.9	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.5		102.3	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.6	18.1	15.2	13.4	15.0
MIA	14.6	14.6	15.4	13.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	76	76	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.41	2	3	-1	14.2	17.6	-3.37	14.6	14.3	0.37
Monta Ellis	35	36	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.11	11	-6	17	13.2	16.0	-2.83	14.1	14.8	-0.71
Baron Davis	57	57	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.25	3	2	1	14.9	15.1	-0.29	14.0	15.3	-1.26
Jason Richardson	78	80	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	2	1	15.2	13.9	1.35	14.4	15.3	-0.95
Andris Biedrins	22	21	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.02	11	-6	17	14.3	15.2	-0.86	13.8	14.8	-0.96
Zarko Cabarkapa	26	28	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.15	3	2	1	13.8	15.4	-1.60	16.0	14.0	1.96
Troy Murphy	66	66	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.20	1	4	-3	15.1	14.7	0.35	13.9	16.0	-2.09
Ike Diogu	35	36	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	3	-1	16.3	14.2	2.13	15.3	14.1	1.22
Adonal Foyle	43	42	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.19	-4	9	-13	15.4	14.6	0.79	14.9	14.3	0.52
Mike Dunleavy	47	48	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.14	-7	12	-19	16.6	13.5	3.14	15.3	13.9	1.43

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	71	71	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.30	10	-15	25	13.7	16.7	-3.01	15.2	14.3	0.87
Shandon Anderson	22	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.03	-2	-3	1	15.4	14.3	1.09	16.9	14.5	2.40
Jason Williams	67	67	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.25	4	-9	13	13.6	16.6	-3.05	15.1	14.7	0.45
James Posey	40	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.10	-2	-3	1	15.6	13.9	1.71	15.1	14.9	0.29
Shaquille O'Neal	69	69	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.24	1	-6	7	15.4	12.5	2.90	16.0	12.4	3.69
Dwyane Wade	84	85	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	-0.36	5	-10	15	14.1	17.1	-2.93	15.2	13.3	1.88
Alonzo Mourning	21	21	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	5	-15	14.7	14.5	0.13	14.6	15.1	-0.52
Derek Anderson	29	29	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	3	-11	16.4	13.8	2.58	14.4	15.2	-0.76
Gary Payton	50	48	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.20	-8	3	-11	14.2	14.9	-0.74	13.9	16.0	-2.10
Antoine Walker	37	34	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.12	-15	10	-25	14.6	14.5	0.14	12.3	16.4	-4.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.17,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.09,0.1,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 93, MIN 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.42,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.17,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.4%
MIN 121, LAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.21,0.32,0.3,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.21,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.14,0.01,0,0,0	93.8%
OKC 96, MIA 85	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.35,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.23,0.19,0.2,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.6%