NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	117		Excitement	2.9 [1219]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +13.8%
Phoenix Suns	93		Comeback	1.1 [570]		LVP	Michael Finley (SAS): -6.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.15	0.01	0.02	8	90%	0.14	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	-0.00	-0.04	21	59%	0.14	4	-0.04	7	71%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	10	65%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	-0.00	9	72%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.01	0.05	11	73%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	7	64%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	8	47%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Sean Marks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	17%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.12	0.00	-0.05	5	9%	-0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	12	46%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	13	58%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	14	57%	0.08	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Andre Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	7	53%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	17	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	12	42%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	3.4	27.5	19.6	28.2	3.6	29.2	137.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +29.2%

SAS +6.2%

PHX -0.5%

SAS +13.9%

SAS +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHX	NBA	SAS	PHX	NBA
this game	17.6	12.9	15.6	124.5	97.9	104.4
season	16.3	13.8		106.0	110.2
opponent	16.1	15.6		105.8	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.3	17.4	16.0	18.6	17.6
PHX	12.5	13.9	12.8	12.7	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	58	59	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.31	29	-5	34	16.6	19.2	-2.61	14.0	11.2	2.73
Tim Duncan	59	59	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.23	24	0	24	16.7	19.1	-2.40	13.8	11.5	2.38
Bruce Bowen	62	62	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.05	11	13	-2	17.5	17.6	-0.01	13.3	12.2	1.08
Tony Parker	54	54	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	14	-4	17.6	17.5	0.01	13.2	12.6	0.59
Nazr Mohammed	46	47	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.25	17	7	10	17.3	17.8	-0.53	14.6	11.4	3.18
Beno Udrih	45	47	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.24	14	10	4	17.5	17.6	-0.12	12.6	13.2	-0.61
Michael Finley	44	44	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	19	-14	19.2	16.1	3.10	11.7	14.0	-2.36
Brent Barry	58	59	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.09	8	16	-8	17.5	17.7	-0.23	12.4	13.9	-1.47
Robert Horry	26	27	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	24	-24	17.7	17.5	0.19	10.5	13.9	-3.44
Fabricio Oberto	11	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	23	-22	21.8	17.0	4.83	10.3	13.3	-2.96
Sean Marks	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	23	-22	18.7	17.5	1.25	8.6	13.3	-4.72

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	11	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-21	18	11.9	13.1	-1.17	21.8	17.0	4.83
Pat Burke	17	16	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.13	-7	-17	10	13.0	12.9	0.06	14.5	18.2	-3.68
Andre Barrett	38	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.15	-9	-15	6	11.7	13.8	-2.11	19.0	16.6	2.43
Eddie House	51	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	-17	10	11.8	14.2	-2.38	18.1	16.9	1.23
James Jones	51	53	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	-14	4	12.9	13.0	-0.14	17.3	17.9	-0.58
Tim Thomas	55	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.18	-20	-4	-16	14.1	11.3	2.80	18.1	16.8	1.25
Raja Bell	80	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.14	-20	-4	-16	13.1	12.2	0.89	17.0	20.2	-3.17
Shawn Marion	84	83	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.12	-21	-3	-18	13.1	11.9	1.17	17.0	21.8	-4.83
Boris Diaw	88	87	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.17	-23	-1	-22	13.3	8.6	4.72	17.5	18.7	-1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.21,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 123, PHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
HOU 123, WAS 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	96.7%
MIN 95, LAC 64	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%