NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	112		Excitement	9.9 [79]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +34.8%
Miami Heat	118		Comeback	4.5 [470]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): -23.3%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.18	0.10	0.02	6	95%	0.29	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.08
Gilbert Arenas	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.34,0.24,0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	21	56%	0.15	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.05
Etan Thomas	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	71%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Ruffin	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	0.00	0	75%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Andray Blatche	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	70%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donell Taylor	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09	-0.04	-0.08	-0.03	18	47%	0.01	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.04
Antawn Jamison	-0.13	0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	18	46%	-0.05	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.18

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.35	0.35	0.18	0.18	0.01	21	71%	0.54	6	-0.19	14	93%	0.09
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.17	0.15	0.03	13	75%	0.28	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	5	73%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	5	80%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.00	5	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	7	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.05
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.05	-0.18	-0.00	14	47%	-0.15	3	-0.08	12	42%	-0.34

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.7	32.0	16.8	31.1	2.5	42.4	150.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +52.7%

WAS -15.6%

MIA +11.8%

MIA +0.3%

MIA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.8	14.5	15.6	117.9	124.2	104.4
season	15.1	15.5		107.4	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.6		102.3	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.7	15.5	16.4	15.7	15.8
MIA	15.6	15.2	12.4	15.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donell Taylor	22	23	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-10	14	15.9	15.8	0.11	15.1	14.3	0.84
Andray Blatche	23	24	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.16	6	-12	18	18.3	15.0	3.28	14.5	14.5	-0.05
Etan Thomas	53	51	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.22	7	-13	20	16.0	15.6	0.40	14.9	14.0	0.88
Antawn Jamison	77	78	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-3	0	16.1	14.8	1.29	14.5	14.5	0.03
Brendan Haywood	42	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	5	-16	15.6	16.0	-0.40	14.6	14.4	0.27
Michael Ruffin	12	12	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.19	-6	0	-6	12.8	16.3	-3.42	13.3	14.7	-1.33
Caron Butler	76	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	4	-14	15.2	18.3	-3.05	14.4	15.0	-0.64
Antonio Daniels	79	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.31	-8	2	-10	15.6	16.7	-1.12	14.4	15.1	-0.69
Gilbert Arenas	91	92	-0.56	0.07	-0.63	-0.30	-9	3	-12	16.0	11.0	5.03	14.4	17.0	-2.59

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	79	78	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.35	16	-10	26	14.2	15.9	-1.66	15.6	17.1	-1.51
Dwyane Wade	86	87	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.38	11	-5	16	14.5	14.9	-0.44	15.9	14.9	1.03
Shaquille O'Neal	73	72	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-5	16	14.3	15.3	-1.01	15.6	16.6	-0.98
Gary Payton	44	44	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	3	0	15.1	14.0	1.07	16.3	15.4	0.93
Jason Williams	72	71	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.30	5	1	4	13.8	16.7	-2.85	14.9	18.5	-3.64
James Posey	48	48	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.01	2	4	-2	14.0	15.0	-1.04	15.1	16.6	-1.49
Derek Anderson	8	9	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.00	-3	9	-12	16.1	14.3	1.78	17.6	15.6	1.92
Antoine Walker	30	31	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.00	-4	10	-14	16.2	13.7	2.49	17.7	14.9	2.85
Shandon Anderson	15	13	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.01	-4	10	-14	13.5	14.7	-1.14	16.5	15.7	0.74
Michael Doleac	20	22	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.01	-7	13	-20	16.6	13.9	2.67	17.0	15.5	1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.18,0.22,0.33,0.28,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.32,0.55,0.34,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 89, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.58,1	92.6%
NYK 84, CHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.58,1	91.4%
MEM 100, ORL 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.39,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.51,0.42,0.19,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.32,0.46,0.55,0.73,1	91.4%