NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	105		Excitement	5.7 [688]		MVP	Matt Bonner (TOR): +28.4%
Toronto Raptors	111		Comeback	1.5 [934]		LVP	Tony Allen (BOS): -9.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Gomes	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	-0.00	9	79%	0.12	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.13	0.04	0.06	13	66%	0.13	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.03
Al Jefferson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	11	57%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.05	0.02	21	66%	0.22	6	-0.20	8	100%	0.04
Gerald Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwayne Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	7	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Allen	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.15	0.13	-0.00	8	94%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.05	0.03	17	63%	0.19	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.05	-0.03	12	67%	0.22	5	-0.10	12	83%	0.04
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.02	-0.02	10	69%	0.19	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.12	0.01	0.05	10	69%	0.08	0	0.00	9	78%	0.01
Pape Sow	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	2	60%	0.01	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.6	29.5	16.4	26.2	2.5	45.7	148.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +39.8%

TOR +5.6%

BOS -3.4%

TOR +7.2%

TOR +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	TOR	NBA	BOS	TOR	NBA
this game	15.2	17.2	15.6	118.0	124.7	104.4
season	14.8	15.6		103.3	107.3
opponent	15.4	15.8		110.5	104.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.1	15.6	14.7	13.5	15.2
TOR	17.2	17.9	16.6	17.2	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Green	10	12	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.15	8	-14	22	6.8	16.2	-9.43	13.6	17.8	-4.17
Dwayne Jones	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-8	10	8.0	15.2	-7.25	6.0	17.3	-11.32
Delonte West	18	17	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-4	2	17.2	14.7	2.50	18.5	16.9	1.65
Tony Allen	42	43	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.33	7	-13	20	14.5	15.8	-1.31	17.8	16.6	1.25
Al Jefferson	28	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.02	-6	0	-6	16.7	14.5	2.20	19.2	16.2	3.00
Ryan Gomes	64	62	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-5	4	15.7	13.8	1.90	16.6	18.5	-1.85
Orien Greene	66	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.24	0	-6	6	14.3	17.5	-3.17	17.0	17.8	-0.86
Brian Scalabrine	19	20	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	-7	1	-8	16.4	14.8	1.53	20.0	16.4	3.69
Raef LaFrentz	55	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.14	-7	1	-8	15.2	15.1	0.03	16.5	18.3	-1.85
Paul Pierce	74	73	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.26	-8	2	-10	15.2	14.9	0.28	16.8	18.8	-1.98
Wally Szczerbiak	68	69	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.19	-16	10	-26	15.7	13.5	2.15	17.2	17.0	0.25

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	85	86	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.25	12	-6	18	17.3	14.7	2.56	15.4	8.7	6.73
Morris Peterson	89	89	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	17.2	0.0	17.19	15.2	0.0	15.17
Matt Bonner	40	40	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	-4	14	17.5	16.9	0.61	15.3	15.1	0.19
Mike James	70	69	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.32	0	6	-6	16.5	19.8	-3.30	14.6	17.2	-2.62
Charlie Villanueva	69	70	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.26	-1	7	-8	16.8	18.4	-1.62	14.3	18.5	-4.27
Jose Calderon	27	27	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.16	0	6	-6	17.8	16.9	0.84	14.3	15.5	-1.25
Joey Graham	25	23	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	5	-4	18.6	16.6	2.01	17.0	14.5	2.53
Eric Williams	39	40	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	2	2	17.4	17.0	0.44	16.7	13.9	2.74
Pape Sow	1	1	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.02	-2	8	-10	7.0	17.3	-10.31	16.0	15.2	0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.8,0.87,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.63,0.83,0.7,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 108, UTA 118	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.55,0.66,0.77,0.85,0.7,0.72,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.3%
MIA 82, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.79,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.88,0.97,0.92,0.97,0.91,1	93.0%
ORL 90, DEN 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.83,0.82,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,1	92.7%