NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	82		Excitement	7.1 [401]		MVP	Jason Caffey (MIL): +7.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	86		Comeback	1.2 [1078]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): -30.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tang Hamilton	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.02	25	55%	0.08	1	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Sean Marks	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mack	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03	-0.08	0.04	-0.01	6	43%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.05
Vladimir Stepania	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	9	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-0.04	12	19%	-0.17	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.09	0.02	9	50%	-0.07	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.01
Rod Strickland	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.29	-0.04	-0.24	0.00	11	50%	-0.22	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	7	70%	0.12	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	16	68%	0.18	5	-0.14	6	83%	0.02
Anthony Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	44%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mark Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	4	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	0.00	-0.01	20	46%	-0.02	4	-0.08	8	87%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.31	-0.31	-0.15	-0.17	-0.01	14	32%	-0.12	2	-0.18	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	1.7	28.8	15.6	22.7	2.4	37.0	129.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +44.9%

MIL +6.8%

MIL +17.7%

MIA -20.5%

MIL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	17.2	13.6	15.6	88.2	91.5	102.3
season	16.5	15.3		96.6	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.8		105.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	15.0	18.8	19.0	17.2
MIL	13.0	15.6	13.3	12.3	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Stepania	45	46	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.14	8	-12	20	16.4	18.1	-1.68	13.6	13.5	0.07
Sam Mack	17	18	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-8	12	14.0	18.0	-3.97	16.1	13.0	3.07
Tang Hamilton	32	33	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.21	3	-7	10	17.7	17.0	0.62	13.4	13.7	-0.23
Rod Strickland	52	53	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.24	2	-6	8	16.9	17.7	-0.82	13.6	13.6	-0.02
Sean Marks	43	44	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	8	-20	18.3	16.4	1.92	12.9	14.2	-1.25
Brian Grant	60	61	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-2	0	16.9	17.8	-0.84	13.7	13.4	0.28
Eddie Jones	81	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	0	-4	17.5	15.6	1.91	13.3	15.6	-2.30
LaPhonso Ellis	64	63	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.30	-9	5	-14	17.8	16.1	1.71	13.5	13.8	-0.35
Anthony Carter	71	70	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.28	-10	6	-16	17.5	16.4	1.16	13.8	13.0	0.77

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	76	77	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.39	12	-8	20	13.5	14.0	-0.53	18.0	13.6	4.45
Jason Caffey	42	42	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.39	0	4	-4	15.0	12.4	2.58	18.0	16.6	1.33
Glenn Robinson	73	72	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.28	1	3	-2	13.8	12.7	1.11	16.8	18.7	-1.89
Sam Cassell	67	68	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	2	0	13.6	13.6	-0.03	16.8	18.4	-1.58
Mark Pope	43	42	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	-3	10	12.3	14.6	-2.34	17.3	17.2	0.11
Anthony Mason	70	70	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.29	-2	6	-8	13.4	14.0	-0.57	17.1	17.8	-0.77
Ervin Johnson	29	27	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	2	0	13.3	13.7	-0.33	17.4	17.2	0.17
Rafer Alston	26	25	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.07	2	2	0	14.1	13.4	0.69	18.4	16.8	1.58
Tim Thomas	44	42	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	8	-12	13.3	13.8	-0.48	16.0	18.3	-2.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.79,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.88,0.97,0.92,0.97,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 105, TOR 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.8,0.87,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.63,0.83,0.7,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,0.96,1	93.0%
DAL 92, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.83,0.76,0.77,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.78,0.71,0.58,0.74,0.84,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.7%
CLE 106, PHX 115	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.92,0.84,0.85,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.64,0.65,0.82,0.75,0.84,0.98,1,1	92.5%