NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	94		Excitement	7.0 [438]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +14.3%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	3.2 [742]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -7.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.01	19	63%	0.26	4	-0.17	3	100%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.05	0.02	13	59%	0.13	1	-0.06	6	83%	0.03
Morris Peterson	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	16	56%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Charlie Villanueva	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	15	53%	0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	3	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Loren Woods	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	-0.00	19	76%	0.32	6	-0.18	4	50%	-0.04
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.08	0.01	16	57%	0.16	2	-0.04	15	33%	-0.13
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.09	-0.00	4	56%	0.13	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	5	60%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	54%	0.05	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	44%	-0.01	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	13	42%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	27.6	16.3	28.4	1.0	30.0	129.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +55.6%

TOR -16.0%

MIA +11.3%

TOR -1.8%

MIA +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.9	14.6	15.6	102.2	111.0	104.4
season	15.6	15.5		107.3	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.4		102.3	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.4	17.7	19.7	14.1	16.9
MIA	14.2	12.3	14.6	17.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Davis	36	34	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.07	6	-13	19	17.8	16.3	1.48	14.2	14.8	-0.57
Mike James	74	75	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.31	10	-17	27	16.4	19.2	-2.82	14.9	12.7	2.20
Loren Woods	30	29	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.07	-6	-1	-5	17.5	16.6	0.84	13.9	14.9	-0.92
Joey Graham	13	12	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	5	-17	18.9	16.6	2.35	12.4	14.9	-2.47
Morris Peterson	79	79	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-12	17	16.6	18.9	-2.35	14.9	12.4	2.47
Eric Williams	13	14	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.10	-7	0	-7	17.2	16.8	0.38	15.1	14.5	0.60
Chris Bosh	66	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.41	3	-10	13	16.6	17.7	-1.10	15.3	12.6	2.72
Matt Bonner	36	37	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.09	-8	1	-9	16.7	17.0	-0.34	13.5	15.3	-1.81
Charlie Villanueva	90	89	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.26	-8	1	-9	17.0	12.5	4.50	14.4	21.0	-6.58
Jose Calderon	23	21	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.01	-18	11	-29	17.2	16.8	0.36	14.4	14.6	-0.23

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	58	57	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.24	15	-8	23	14.7	14.3	0.40	16.1	18.1	-2.00
Shandon Anderson	27	26	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.30	10	-3	13	16.2	13.9	2.31	15.0	17.7	-2.65
Antoine Walker	65	64	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.25	11	-4	15	14.8	13.8	1.00	16.1	18.7	-2.55
Dwyane Wade	85	86	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.27	6	1	5	14.6	13.7	0.96	17.2	13.2	4.00
Alonzo Mourning	18	19	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.01	15	-8	23	13.4	14.8	-1.39	18.8	16.4	2.38
Shaquille O'Neal	71	72	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.31	-5	12	-17	14.9	13.4	1.42	16.6	18.0	-1.40
James Posey	42	43	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	8	-9	13.6	15.4	-1.75	18.3	15.6	2.72
Jason Williams	39	41	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.08	-7	14	-21	14.2	14.8	-0.62	17.4	16.5	0.92
Udonis Haslem	50	52	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.03	-9	16	-25	14.1	15.2	-1.11	17.3	16.3	1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.72,0.76,0.96,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 98, ORL 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.58,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.75,0.78,1,1,1	93.5%
NJN 92, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.24,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.58,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.81,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.2%
POR 101, DAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.96,0.98,0.99,1	92.0%