NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	6.5 [525]		MVP	Mike Miller (MEM): +7.3%
Memphis Grizzlies	80		Comeback	3.9 [159]		LVP	Pau Gasol (MEM): -18.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.02	9	54%	0.12	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Michael Finley	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	-0.05	0.06	-0.03	12	39%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
Brent Barry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	16	44%	0.03	3	-0.04	11	45%	-0.02
Beno Udrih	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	8	28%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	0.04	6	42%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	0.06	4	42%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Tony Parker	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	8	53%	0.01	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.08	0.03	7	82%	0.18	4	-0.11	3	33%	-0.04
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	75%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	9	55%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Dahntay Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	5	25%	-0.06	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.17	-0.17	0.01	-0.15	0.03	2	67%	-0.14	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.24
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.08	-0.05	0.06	18	46%	-0.08	4	-0.11	10	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.7	29.0	16.6	26.5	2.5	48.2	149.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM -24.3%

SAS +23.6%

SAS +20.7%

SAS +26.5%

SAS +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	15.9	14.9	15.6	89.2	85.1	104.4
season	16.3	17.1		106.0	103.5
opponent	15.7	15.6		100.0	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	19.2	16.0	15.8	13.2	15.9
MEM	12.9	19.2	14.8	13.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	67	68	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.24	12	-9	21	14.7	19.0	-4.28	15.1	14.2	0.92
Brent Barry	39	39	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.17	14	-11	25	15.1	16.5	-1.44	16.4	13.9	2.50
Beno Udrih	26	26	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.22	8	-5	13	15.8	16.0	-0.20	15.2	14.8	0.47
Fabricio Oberto	29	29	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.15	9	-6	15	15.9	15.9	-0.08	15.7	14.5	1.20
Bruce Bowen	61	63	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.33	-3	6	-9	16.5	14.8	1.63	15.0	14.8	0.18
Michael Finley	53	53	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.40	-7	10	-17	16.4	15.3	1.08	14.0	16.1	-2.14
Tony Parker	53	54	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	3	-3	15.2	16.8	-1.64	14.7	15.2	-0.53
Tim Duncan	68	69	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.23	-5	8	-13	16.6	14.0	2.62	15.0	14.5	0.56
Nazr Mohammed	47	47	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	3	-3	16.2	15.6	0.65	14.6	15.2	-0.64
Nick Van Exel	15	15	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	9	-15	18.3	15.5	2.81	14.7	14.9	-0.19
Rasho Nesterovic	7	7	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	10	-17	15.7	15.9	-0.22	8.9	15.4	-6.52

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jake Tsakalidis	39	39	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.02	6	-9	15	15.0	14.8	0.18	18.3	14.2	4.03
Dahntay Jones	7	6	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.02	2	-5	7	19.3	14.5	4.75	23.8	15.4	8.47
Lorenzen Wright	10	11	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-3	3	13.5	15.1	-1.56	16.9	15.8	1.13
Chucky Atkins	63	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.46	9	-12	21	13.4	17.9	-4.49	15.4	16.9	-1.46
Eddie Jones	73	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.38	5	-8	13	14.6	15.9	-1.30	15.4	17.8	-2.47
Pau Gasol	78	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.28	-1	-2	1	15.3	13.0	2.28	16.7	12.1	4.59
Hakim Warrick	35	34	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	2	-7	14.6	15.1	-0.42	13.2	17.5	-4.22
Shane Battier	69	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.34	-1	-2	1	14.2	16.9	-2.71	15.5	17.0	-1.43
Mike Miller	57	57	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.30	-12	9	-21	15.6	13.9	1.70	14.9	17.5	-2.63
Bobby Jackson	39	36	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.13	-18	15	-33	17.1	13.4	3.69	16.9	15.3	1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.32,0.19,0.34,0.18,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 99, DET 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.33,0.34,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.2%
CHA 95, BOS 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.2%
PHI 116, SAC 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.2%