NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	76		Excitement	2.5 [1271]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +11.7%
Dallas Mavericks	112		Comeback	1.0 [1267]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -9.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.13	-0.01	0.05	12	77%	0.14	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.06	4	50%	0.02	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	67%	0.02	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Gerald Fitch	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Wayne Simien	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	4	62%	-0.00	3	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	36%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
James Posey	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	0.04	13	50%	-0.03	4	-0.06	6	67%	-0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.01	0.03	10	80%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.20	-0.00	0.13	16	75%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.01	10	64%	0.07	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.02	4	70%	0.05	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.04	9	70%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.01	0.03	10	61%	0.05	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.6	29.3	20.7	28.9	3.4	25.6	137.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +28.9%

DAL +2.2%

DAL +8.7%

DAL +9.9%

DAL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	14.4	17.2	15.6	83.5	123.1	104.4
season	15.5	16.4		106.1	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.7	15.0	14.3	13.8	14.4
DAL	16.7	17.8	17.7	16.9	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Fitch	16	16	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.18	-6	-30	24	12.9	14.7	-1.78	18.3	17.0	1.30
Wayne Simien	19	19	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.23	-8	-28	20	13.3	14.7	-1.45	17.6	17.2	0.43
Jason Kapono	25	23	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.35	-12	-24	12	13.2	14.8	-1.61	16.9	17.4	-0.44
Michael Doleac	36	33	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.44	-19	-17	-2	13.6	14.9	-1.27	17.9	16.9	1.05
Shandon Anderson	39	40	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.22	-15	-21	6	14.6	14.2	0.37	18.0	16.6	1.40
Antoine Walker	39	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.24	-16	-20	4	14.5	14.3	0.23	17.6	17.0	0.69
James Posey	29	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.16	-14	-22	8	14.5	14.4	0.16	16.7	17.5	-0.76
Gary Payton	46	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.22	-17	-19	2	14.2	14.7	-0.51	17.7	16.8	0.93
Jason Williams	35	35	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.17	-16	-20	4	15.7	13.6	2.17	15.8	18.1	-2.34
Udonis Haslem	60	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.26	-19	-17	-2	14.6	14.1	0.47	17.1	17.6	-0.48
Shaquille O'Neal	51	54	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.12	-17	-19	2	14.9	13.8	1.04	16.3	18.6	-2.28
Dwyane Wade	60	63	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.20	-21	-15	-6	14.7	13.8	0.86	17.6	16.5	1.02

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	58	55	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.21	21	15	6	17.5	16.7	0.81	14.5	14.3	0.12
Dirk Nowitzki	60	58	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.22	20	16	4	16.5	18.6	-2.08	14.9	13.5	1.49
Adrian Griffin	46	47	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.47	28	8	20	16.1	18.4	-2.38	14.6	14.2	0.48
Jason Terry	57	54	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.21	17	19	-2	17.3	17.1	0.20	14.7	13.9	0.78
DeSagana Diop	23	23	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.27	19	17	2	16.3	17.6	-1.25	16.7	13.6	3.01
Erick Dampier	45	46	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.23	17	19	-2	18.0	16.5	1.46	14.1	14.7	-0.65
Jerry Stackhouse	48	48	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.12	12	24	-12	18.1	16.3	1.87	14.2	14.6	-0.42
Devin Harris	15	18	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.12	11	25	-14	16.5	17.4	-0.85	14.7	14.3	0.32
Keith Van Horn	44	46	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.37	15	21	-6	18.1	16.5	1.60	13.6	15.3	-1.70
Marquis Daniels	30	31	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.24	9	27	-18	17.1	17.3	-0.26	14.1	14.6	-0.47
Darrell Armstrong	19	19	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.23	8	28	-20	17.6	17.2	0.43	13.3	14.7	-1.45
DJ Mbenga	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	33	-30	16.7	17.3	-0.61	12.0	14.7	-2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.81,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.84,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 83, IND 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
NJN 104, MIL 115	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
NOH 88, LAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%