NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	98		Excitement	4.5 [933]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +20.3%
Miami Heat	114		Comeback	1.3 [1051]		LVP	Delonte West (BOS): -8.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.17	0.02	0.04	9	90%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	3	83%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Gerald Green	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	6	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.05	21	53%	-0.00	2	-0.02	16	87%	0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	15	43%	0.02	3	-0.07	7	71%	-0.00
Orien Greene	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	9	40%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.17	0.05	0.02	17	69%	0.23	2	-0.03	15	87%	0.04
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.02	14	60%	0.10	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	10	65%	0.10	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	2	71%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	9	21%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.00	0.08	11	50%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.7	32.4	16.4	28.2	1.8	34.3	139.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.9%

MIA +9.1%

MIA +5.1%

MIA +11.8%

BOS -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	15.2	15.6	105.4	120.0	104.4
season	14.8	15.5		103.3	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.8		102.3	104.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.0	17.7	14.2	14.2	15.4
MIA	14.0	15.9	15.2	15.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	48	49	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.08	8	-24	32	14.2	16.7	-2.50	15.6	14.8	0.81
Gerald Green	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-19	22	13.8	15.5	-1.70	16.3	15.1	1.19
Ryan Gomes	6	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-18	20	13.8	15.5	-1.70	15.9	15.2	0.69
Raef LaFrentz	52	51	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.09	-5	-11	6	15.7	15.1	0.62	14.3	16.2	-1.92
Orien Greene	26	28	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.02	-7	-9	2	15.8	15.3	0.59	15.5	15.1	0.45
Tony Allen	28	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-13	10	14.0	16.0	-2.03	15.3	15.2	0.10
Delonte West	69	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.07	-12	-4	-8	15.4	15.4	0.00	15.0	15.8	-0.86
Wally Szczerbiak	77	77	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.04	-12	-4	-8	15.5	15.2	0.20	15.2	15.4	-0.21
Paul Pierce	79	81	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.12	-18	2	-20	15.7	14.0	1.67	14.8	17.6	-2.84
Brian Scalabrine	35	37	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	-4	-8	15.3	15.5	-0.21	16.3	14.5	1.81
Michael Olowokandi	39	39	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	0.05	-24	8	-32	17.3	14.1	3.25	15.6	14.9	0.71

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	75	76	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.10	19	-3	22	14.6	17.5	-2.89	16.0	13.0	2.96
Gary Payton	55	51	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.07	11	5	6	15.6	14.7	0.86	14.5	16.5	-1.93
Antoine Walker	45	43	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.05	15	1	14	15.6	14.9	0.68	15.2	15.6	-0.48
Alonzo Mourning	32	29	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.05	11	5	6	16.1	14.8	1.32	15.0	15.6	-0.61
Shandon Anderson	31	30	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.02	12	4	8	15.1	15.3	-0.18	14.3	15.9	-1.60
Jason Williams	54	53	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	11	-6	15.6	14.8	0.82	15.7	15.1	0.56
Udonis Haslem	61	59	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	16	-16	15.0	15.6	-0.53	15.8	14.7	1.12
Shaquille O'Neal	56	58	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.08	7	9	-2	14.6	16.1	-1.41	15.8	14.8	0.99
James Posey	46	47	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	11	-6	14.8	15.6	-0.72	15.9	14.9	1.04
Wayne Simien	14	13	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.08	-2	18	-20	16.7	15.0	1.75	14.3	15.6	-1.29
Jason Kapono	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	16.3	15.1	1.19	13.8	15.5	-1.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.66,0.7,0.63,0.71,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 98, POR 122	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
MIA 73, CHH 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%
CLE 77, SAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.74,0.71,0.59,0.52,0.62,0.64,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%