NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	84		Excitement	5.9 [649]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +10.5%
Houston Rockets	86		Comeback	3.2 [741]		LVP	T.J. Ford (MIL): -27.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jiri Welsch	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	-0.00	0.01	8	71%	0.12	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Bobby Simmons	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.07	0.16	-0.09	0.01	19	67%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	42%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	4	29%	-0.06	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Jamaal Magloire	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	11	43%	-0.10	2	-0.04	8	37%	-0.10
T.J. Ford	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.29,-0.28	-0.21	-0.07	-0.01	20	26%	-0.20	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.05

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	18	51%	0.11	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0	0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	19	44%	0.05	2	-0.05	12	75%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	0.01	10	45%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	0.00	7	29%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.0	29.2	17.8	26.2	2.5	37.5	140.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +33.2%

HOU +13.4%

HOU +4.1%

MIL -2.6%

HOU +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	HOU	NBA	MIL	HOU	NBA
this game	15.5	16.7	15.6	93.3	96.6	104.4
season	15.5	16.1		104.6	99.9
opponent	16.1	15.5		101.4	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.0	16.3	16.1	13.5	15.5
HOU	17.5	14.3	16.6	18.4	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	71	69	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.32	11	-13	24	15.5	15.3	0.22	17.2	14.8	2.38
Bobby Simmons	64	64	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.44	11	-13	24	15.5	15.4	0.15	16.9	16.2	0.75
Dan Gadzuric	16	16	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.10	-14	12	-26	15.6	15.5	0.09	15.9	16.9	-1.00
Toni Kukoc	40	42	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.39	2	-4	6	14.7	16.1	-1.33	16.8	16.6	0.26
Charlie Bell	44	43	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-10	8	-18	14.6	16.4	-1.80	16.8	16.6	0.23
Andrew Bogut	53	51	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	1	-4	16.0	14.8	1.15	16.1	17.5	-1.36
T.J. Ford	90	89	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	15.5	0.0	15.49	16.7	0.0	16.70
Jiri Welsch	72	71	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.41	-5	3	-8	16.0	13.4	2.63	16.4	17.7	-1.29

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yao Ming	61	62	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.30	7	-5	12	16.5	17.1	-0.55	15.9	14.6	1.28
Ryan Bowen	17	17	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.06	15	-13	28	12.5	17.7	-5.22	17.1	15.1	2.01
Luther Head	34	34	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.02	15	-13	28	16.9	16.6	0.25	15.6	15.4	0.25
Rafer Alston	74	75	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	3	-4	16.5	17.7	-1.17	15.7	14.6	1.07
Charles Hayes	28	28	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.04	10	-8	18	16.0	17.0	-1.02	16.8	14.9	1.88
Moochie Norris	15	15	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	-1	4	17.7	16.5	1.17	14.6	15.7	-1.07
Lonny Baxter	17	18	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	0	2	17.2	16.6	0.67	13.9	15.9	-1.93
Tracy McGrady	69	70	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.50	-13	15	-28	17.4	14.3	3.09	15.2	16.5	-1.36
David Wesley	59	59	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.48	-13	15	-28	16.8	16.6	0.20	15.3	15.9	-0.58
Juwan Howard	60	62	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.23	-8	10	-18	17.3	15.5	1.75	14.9	16.8	-1.88
Dikembe Mutombo	11	10	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	9	-16	16.8	16.7	0.14	15.8	15.4	0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.79,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 111, SAC 116	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.86,0.79,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,1,1	94.0%
HOU 114, DEN 132	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.47,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%
POR 89, ORL 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.95,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%