NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	79		Excitement	5.5 [736]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +8.3%
Utah Jazz	70		Comeback	1.9 [315]		LVP	Andrei Kirilenko (UTA): -19.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.05	-0.03	11	59%	0.15	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	9	56%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	71%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	13	53%	0.08	3	-0.05	10	70%	0.00
Melvin Sanders	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	11	57%	0.06	3	-0.06	8	62%	0.02
Nazr Mohammed	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	3	14%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarron Collins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	8	65%	0.08	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.02	9	63%	0.11	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Keith McLeod	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	7	56%	0.08	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	4	30%	-0.01	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.02	-0.00	10	18%	-0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	12	31%	-0.12	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	11	32%	-0.08	4	-0.11	9	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.4	24.3	15.5	29.4	1.8	31.0	128.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +41.3%

SAS +0.7%

UTA -12.7%

SAS +17.5%

SAS +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	16.4	17.3	15.6	92.9	81.4	104.4
season	16.3	17.0		106.0	101.7
opponent	15.0	15.6		104.6	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.8	14.7	16.6	18.5	16.4
UTA	17.0	18.7	18.4	14.9	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	51	51	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.09	16	-7	23	14.8	18.9	-4.12	16.6	18.2	-1.52
Beno Udrih	28	28	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.05	10	-1	11	17.1	16.1	1.04	18.4	16.7	1.67
Tim Duncan	58	59	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	4	1	18.0	13.0	5.00	17.4	17.1	0.28
Bruce Bowen	64	66	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	2	5	17.3	13.8	3.46	17.6	16.1	1.46
Sean Marks	25	25	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.13	7	2	5	13.3	17.7	-4.44	15.5	18.0	-2.46
Nazr Mohammed	45	45	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.08	7	2	5	16.2	16.7	-0.54	16.2	18.4	-2.19
Michael Finley	27	26	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.27	0	9	-9	17.5	15.9	1.62	18.8	16.6	2.26
Tony Parker	61	61	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.23	-4	13	-17	16.4	16.5	-0.06	16.5	19.2	-2.67
Rasho Nesterovic	20	20	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.06	1	8	-7	15.4	16.7	-1.26	18.3	16.9	1.41
Melvin Sanders	4	5	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	9	-9	20.2	16.2	4.03	13.0	17.5	-4.53
Brent Barry	20	21	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	11	-13	14.7	16.9	-2.24	17.5	17.2	0.34
Fabricio Oberto	22	23	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	11	-13	17.2	16.1	1.04	20.0	16.3	3.79

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordan Giricek	31	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.02	-2	-7	5	17.6	17.1	0.54	15.1	17.1	-2.02
Deron Williams	16	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-5	1	19.1	16.8	2.28	17.2	16.3	0.96
Jarron Collins	60	60	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.14	0	-9	9	17.0	17.8	-0.72	16.7	15.7	0.98
Matt Harpring	47	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.14	-1	-8	7	16.9	17.7	-0.82	18.0	14.5	3.51
Keith McLeod	51	50	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.19	0	-9	9	17.5	17.0	0.45	16.4	16.4	-0.03
Devin Brown	22	21	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	-1	-7	18.7	16.8	1.96	14.7	17.0	-2.32
Andrei Kirilenko	73	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-5	1	17.5	15.8	1.67	16.4	16.5	-0.11
Milt Palacio	39	40	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-6	3	16.2	18.1	-1.90	17.1	15.8	1.35
Greg Ostertag	26	25	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.09	-9	0	-9	17.8	17.0	0.72	15.7	16.7	-0.98
Mehmet Okur	65	66	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.21	-14	5	-19	16.6	19.3	-2.67	15.9	18.3	-2.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.22,0.3,0.21,0.15,0.06,0.02,0.09,0.11,0.04,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 98, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.19,0.29,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
POR 96, ORL 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	94.2%
LAC 88, DET 76	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.31,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.28,0.15,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.8%