NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	123		Excitement	11.7 [26]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +57.0%
Toronto Raptors	124		Comeback	15.0 [125]		LVP	Brad Miller (SAC): -7.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.57	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.48,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.46,0.35,0.57	0.19	0.39	0.01	32	60%	0.59	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.10
Metta World Peace	0.35	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.35	0.02	0.33	-0.01	18	53%	0.49	3	-0.13	9	78%	0.08
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	2	100%	0.17	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Kenny Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	7	84%	0.24	6	-0.21	5	80%	0.01
Ronnie Price	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.01	3	-0.08	10	80%	0.01
Brad Miller	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.02	-0.08	0.01	10	61%	0.06	4	-0.13	11	82%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.19,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.49	0.49	0.08	0.39	-0.01	18	57%	0.51	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.11
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.29	0.29	-0.10	0.38	-0.01	14	37%	0.50	3	-0.21	7	71%	-0.01
Mike James	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	0.00	19	51%	0.14	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.07
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	15	60%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	4	80%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.01	16	51%	0.11	1	-0.03	9	78%	-0.08
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	6	69%	0.15	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	3	73%	0.07	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Pape Sow	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	482.0	2.4	34.5	16.6	27.9	1.8	40.8	1.5	21.7	629.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +40.2%

SAC -24.6%

TOR +2.3%

TOR +30.4%

TOR +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	TOR	NBA	SAC	TOR	NBA
this game	14.3	14.9	15.6	111.8	114.8	104.4
season	15.3	15.6		104.7	107.3
opponent	15.4	15.5		110.5	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	14.2	16.7	12.3	13.4	15.9	14.3
TOR	15.8	14.0	15.4	16.2	11.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	100	99	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.00	4	-5	9	14.6	10.7	3.91	15.5	8.9	6.59
Ronnie Price	6	7	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.05	-6	5	-11	23.2	13.7	9.43	13.1	15.0	-1.91
Kenny Thomas	86	86	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.44	7	-8	15	13.8	15.7	-1.91	14.3	17.3	-2.95
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	28	27	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	10	-21	15.9	13.7	2.20	15.9	14.6	1.28
Kevin Martin	96	92	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.53	6	-7	13	13.6	18.5	-4.86	15.0	14.6	0.35
Mike Bibby	105	102	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.52	5	-6	11	13.8	24.8	-11.05	14.9	15.0	-0.08
Francisco Garcia	48	48	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.43	-1	0	-1	13.9	14.5	-0.60	14.7	15.1	-0.35
Metta World Peace	81	79	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.46	-9	8	-17	14.6	13.2	1.38	14.8	15.3	-0.53

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	26	27	1.21	-0.71	1.91	0.71	17	-16	33	13.3	15.5	-2.18	18.6	12.9	5.70
Charlie Villanueva	65	68	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.38	5	-4	9	14.8	15.1	-0.32	15.0	13.1	1.84
Morris Peterson	101	103	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.50	-1	2	-3	14.9	15.1	-0.23	13.6	23.6	-9.95
Jose Calderon	32	34	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.02	10	-9	19	13.5	15.5	-2.07	17.1	13.0	4.19
Joey Graham	32	32	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	-8	17	15.5	14.7	0.86	16.5	13.3	3.17
Jalen Rose	81	83	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.39	-5	6	-11	15.0	14.6	0.44	14.3	14.1	0.24
Mike James	77	77	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.45	-9	10	-19	15.4	13.8	1.52	13.0	17.2	-4.23
Pape Sow	45	44	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	6	-11	14.5	15.2	-0.71	12.9	15.2	-2.24
Chris Bosh	81	82	-0.75	1.25	-2.01	-0.29	-16	17	-33	15.6	12.9	2.77	12.8	18.4	-5.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.9,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.79,0.94,0.58,0.46,0.24,0.28,0.09,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 102, BOS 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.85,0.85,0.72,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.42,1	91.5%
GSW 116, LAC 121	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.74,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.86,0.86,0.42,0.5,0.31,0.29,0.43,0.58,1	89.4%
CHH 86, MIA 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.73,0.78,0.72,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.91,0.85,0.85,0.69,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.27,1	89.1%