NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	107		Excitement	1.5 [707]		MVP	Raja Bell (PHX): +23.3%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	1.2 [499]		LVP	Gary Payton (MIA): -14.8%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raja Bell	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.16	0.04	-0.03	13	81%	0.25	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
James Jones	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.16	0.01	0.03	11	74%	0.14	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Steve Nash	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	16	60%	0.16	5	-0.12	3	100%	0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	58%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.01	0.02	13	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Boris Diaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	13	36%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Pat Burke	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.01	-0.02	8	89%	0.16	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	20	56%	0.12	3	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	9	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	11	58%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
Gerald Fitch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	10	43%	-0.03	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.04	15	50%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.02	11	29%	-0.08	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	2.8	30.8	19.5	25.5	3.3	34.7	143.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +44.5%

PHX +10.0%

MIA -3.9%

MIA -1.6%

PHX +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIA	NBA	PHX	MIA	NBA
this game	14.1	15.2	15.6	109.2	100.0	104.4
season	13.8	15.5		110.2	106.1
opponent	15.5	16.1		102.3	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	13.7	14.0	13.4	15.6	14.1
MIA	16.9	16.0	12.7	15.7	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raja Bell	79	79	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.17	14	-5	19	14.1	14.2	-0.02	15.6	13.9	1.67
Steve Nash	76	76	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.06	17	-8	25	14.0	14.6	-0.64	15.5	14.4	1.14
Shawn Marion	85	85	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	-4	17	14.1	14.2	-0.10	15.3	14.9	0.37
Kurt Thomas	72	73	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.05	12	-3	15	13.6	15.6	-2.00	15.5	14.5	1.03
Boris Diaw	79	78	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.35	-3	12	-15	14.0	14.9	-0.93	15.3	15.2	0.06
James Jones	39	39	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	1	7	14.3	14.0	0.27	14.7	15.6	-0.83
Pat Burke	10	11	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	8	-7	18.5	13.6	4.85	14.9	15.3	-0.38
Leandro Barbosa	32	31	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.26	-10	19	-29	14.7	13.9	0.76	14.2	15.7	-1.58
Eddie House	18	18	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.10	-7	16	-23	14.1	14.2	-0.11	14.6	15.4	-0.84

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Fitch	13	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-12	15	13.7	15.5	-1.79	14.2	14.1	0.08
Shaquille O'Neal	67	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.22	0	-9	9	15.4	14.8	0.59	14.0	14.5	-0.48
Antoine Walker	44	44	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-7	5	15.1	15.4	-0.28	15.6	13.0	2.59
Alonzo Mourning	28	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	1	-11	15.2	15.2	0.01	15.0	13.8	1.15
Udonis Haslem	57	58	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-5	1	15.7	14.6	1.05	12.8	16.1	-3.31
Gary Payton	74	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-7	5	15.4	14.9	0.49	14.2	14.0	0.19
James Posey	74	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-7	5	15.1	15.7	-0.56	14.1	14.4	-0.36
Jason Kapono	47	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	-2	-5	14.8	15.7	-0.92	14.6	13.7	0.91
Dwyane Wade	86	85	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	0.03	-21	12	-33	15.4	14.2	1.23	14.0	15.4	-1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.27,0.17,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.1,0.14,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 92, NJN 82	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0	94.6%
VAN 102, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.05,0.06,0,0	94.3%
CHH 102, NJN 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.16,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.06,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	94.2%