NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	7.6 [318]		MVP	Greg Buckner (DEN): +30.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	94		Comeback	21.5 [33]		LVP	Steve Blake (POR): -17.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Buckner	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.3,0.3	0.07	0.24	0.01	6	75%	0.30	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.12,0.06,0.17,0.15	-0.01	0.16	0.00	16	55%	0.33	4	-0.18	6	83%	0.04
Linas Kleiza	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.03	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	22	51%	0.07	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	17	60%	0.17	3	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	7	43%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	1	33%	-0.03	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.05
Earl Watson	-0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	6	29%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	5	79%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	9	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,0.12,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	17	50%	0.22	3	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	60%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Charles Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	21	43%	0.09	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	5	55%	0.06	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.03
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Viktor Khryapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.13	-0.02	8	44%	0.01	3	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	27.1	15.8	23.1	2.5	34.3	128.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +4.2%

DEN +17.2%

POR -5.4%

DEN +32.4%

DEN +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	14.2	18.5	15.6	110.2	106.8	104.4
season	14.4	16.6		103.5	99.4
opponent	15.7	15.9		109.8	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.0	15.5	14.7	13.9	14.2
POR	17.0	18.8	22.4	16.7	18.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	71	71	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.54	10	-7	17	13.6	16.7	-3.10	19.0	16.4	2.69
Eduardo Najera	49	49	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.40	15	-12	27	14.3	14.1	0.28	18.1	19.0	-0.90
Greg Buckner	46	46	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.42	10	-7	17	13.7	14.8	-1.11	17.0	20.2	-3.14
Carmelo Anthony	70	70	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.50	5	-2	7	14.4	13.3	1.17	18.6	18.2	0.38
Andre Miller	68	70	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.42	1	2	-1	13.9	15.1	-1.22	19.0	16.7	2.33
Linas Kleiza	11	11	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	1	1	14.6	14.1	0.49	15.5	18.9	-3.40
Earl Watson	39	40	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.06	-1	4	-5	14.5	14.0	0.46	20.7	16.7	4.04
Earl Boykins	41	39	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.04	-6	9	-15	14.6	13.9	0.76	16.6	20.0	-3.38
Francisco Elson	45	44	-0.71	1.21	-1.92	-0.10	-21	24	-45	14.9	13.5	1.45	19.2	17.8	1.41

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Viktor Khryapa	25	26	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.07	8	-11	19	19.0	18.3	0.72	14.0	14.3	-0.24
Joel Przybilla	33	34	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-4	5	20.0	17.7	2.32	14.3	14.2	0.10
Sebastian Telfair	33	33	-0.00	-0.49	0.49	0.11	-4	1	-5	17.6	19.1	-1.47	14.4	14.1	0.25
Jarrett Jack	31	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.17	-10	7	-17	17.8	18.9	-1.11	13.6	14.5	-0.96
Travis Outlaw	28	28	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	2	-7	16.1	19.7	-3.60	14.7	14.0	0.75
Juan Dixon	57	57	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.61	7	-10	17	18.9	17.8	1.11	14.5	13.6	0.96
Ruben Patterson	55	55	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	6	-15	18.8	18.0	0.79	13.9	14.7	-0.79
Steve Blake	55	55	-0.49	-0.00	-0.49	-0.52	1	-4	5	19.1	17.6	1.47	14.1	14.4	-0.25
Theo Ratliff	55	54	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.39	-4	1	-5	17.7	20.0	-2.32	14.2	14.3	-0.10
Zach Randolph	68	67	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.54	0	-3	3	19.1	16.5	2.55	14.3	13.9	0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.74,0.6,0.5,0.62,0.71,0.8,0.93,0.92,0.81,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.57,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 92, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.8,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.75,0.74,0.65,0.16,0	90.4%
MIL 96, PHX 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.72,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.7,0.57,0.52,0.76,0.91,0.86,0.76,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.32,0.28,0	90.4%
ATL 112, BOS 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.85,0.94,0.86,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.26,0	89.8%