NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	117		Excitement	4.3 [982]		MVP	James Posey (MIA): +13.1%
Seattle SuperSonics	104		Comeback	2.2 [242]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -13.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.00	0.00	11	73%	0.13	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.01	-0.06	13	56%	0.14	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.01	7	76%	0.12	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Jason Williams	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	15	56%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Gary Payton	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.01	0.03	7	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	7	60%	0.05	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Fitch	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	14	42%	-0.03	5	-0.11	8	87%	0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	-0.01	0.03	21	57%	0.10	1	-0.02	16	69%	-0.02
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	2	83%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	13	43%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robert Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	14	58%	0.03	3	-0.04	8	87%	0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.03	11	50%	-0.03	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	12	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.6	1.7	35.1	16.7	30.0	2.8	32.3	149.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +42.4%

MIA +10.7%

MIA +7.1%

SEA -12.2%

MIA +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SEA	NBA	MIA	SEA	NBA
this game	15.7	14.6	15.6	123.2	109.5	104.4
season	15.5	15.0		106.1	108.9
opponent	15.8	15.5		112.2	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	15.9	14.9	17.4	15.7
SEA	12.9	17.5	15.1	13.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	71	69	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.05	19	-6	25	15.3	16.9	-1.55	14.3	15.4	-1.08
Alonzo Mourning	44	42	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.16	20	-7	27	15.2	16.2	-1.04	15.1	14.2	0.85
Jason Williams	72	71	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.08	17	-4	21	15.2	17.3	-2.10	15.3	12.5	2.81
Dwyane Wade	77	79	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	9	-5	15.9	15.0	0.88	14.8	13.5	1.32
Gary Payton	15	15	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.09	11	2	9	15.5	15.8	-0.30	13.9	14.7	-0.87
Wayne Simien	14	15	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	9	-5	15.8	15.7	0.08	15.0	14.5	0.47
James Posey	43	45	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.05	8	5	3	16.5	15.1	1.41	15.7	13.6	2.03
Gerald Fitch	21	20	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	13	-13	16.5	15.5	1.04	12.8	15.1	-2.22
Shaquille O'Neal	44	45	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	15	-17	15.9	15.6	0.28	14.8	14.5	0.30
Udonis Haslem	66	67	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.38	-12	25	-37	15.9	15.2	0.73	13.6	17.0	-3.35
Jason Kapono	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	17	-21	16.6	15.6	0.99	12.3	14.8	-2.50

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-13	13	0.0	14.6	-14.60	42.0	15.4	26.56
Vitaly Potapenko	2	1	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	-9	5	23.0	14.4	8.58	3.0	15.9	-12.85
Robert Swift	44	44	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-13	13	14.7	14.5	0.28	15.6	15.8	-0.27
Mikki Moore	13	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-12	11	17.0	14.2	2.78	18.8	15.2	3.54
Nick Collison	41	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-13	13	13.4	15.5	-2.17	15.7	15.7	0.06
Johan Petro	34	34	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-4	-5	14.7	14.6	0.12	15.5	15.9	-0.38
Damien Wilkins	48	45	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-7	1	14.6	14.6	-0.08	16.1	15.4	0.71
Vladimir Radmanovic	67	67	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-2	-9	14.9	13.9	0.95	15.8	15.6	0.15
Rashard Lewis	77	78	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	-11	-2	-9	14.4	15.4	-1.04	15.2	17.9	-2.64
Ronald Murray	61	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.09	-15	2	-17	15.0	13.9	1.16	15.8	15.6	0.18
Luke Ridnour	88	89	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-5	-3	14.2	19.4	-5.21	15.4	20.2	-4.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.21,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 122, SAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.13,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
CHI 151, MIL 135	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
NYK 102, PHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.18,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.4%