NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	87		Excitement	4.6 [919]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +14.6%
Orlando Magic	107		Comeback	1.1 [1040]		LVP	Anthony Carter (MIN): -14.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.18	-0.00	0.06	15	78%	0.16	3	-0.05	7	100%	0.03
Trenton Hassell	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01
Richie Frahm	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.10	-0.02	0.08	18	57%	-0.00	1	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Troy Hudson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	8	31%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	6	44%	-0.00	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Rashad McCants	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	6	27%	-0.03	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.04	0.03	17	64%	0.17	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	13	62%	0.11	2	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.05	12	46%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terence Morris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.04	9	61%	0.05	3	-0.06	10	70%	-0.00
Mario Kasun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	12	63%	0.08	5	-0.10	3	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	11	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.4	32.1	16.5	31.5	2.4	28.2	139.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +13.2%

ORL +10.1%

ORL +23.1%

ORL +3.7%

MIN -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ORL	NBA	MIN	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	15.4	15.6	94.6	113.8	104.4
season	16.1	16.4		101.0	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.9		105.9	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.8	15.3	16.0	16.5	15.6
ORL	15.2	15.4	14.7	16.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richie Frahm	29	30	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.00	4	-24	28	14.3	16.2	-1.90	15.9	15.1	0.79
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-17	14	15.7	15.6	0.06	17.7	15.3	2.49
Mark Madsen	9	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.04	-2	-18	16	18.7	15.3	3.39	13.5	15.5	-2.03
Marko Jaric	57	57	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.26	-10	-10	0	15.2	16.2	-1.00	16.2	14.1	2.16
Ronald Dupree	7	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	-14	8	21.3	15.1	6.14	16.2	15.3	0.97
Troy Hudson	14	15	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.04	-8	-12	4	17.9	15.2	2.65	14.7	15.5	-0.75
Eddie Griffin	36	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.02	-9	-11	2	15.6	15.6	0.00	14.8	15.7	-0.94
Anthony Carter	23	23	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-16	12	15.3	15.7	-0.35	14.1	15.8	-1.69
Trenton Hassell	85	86	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	-6	-8	15.1	21.3	-6.14	15.3	16.2	-0.97
Wally Szczerbiak	82	84	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.04	-16	-4	-12	15.8	14.3	1.47	15.3	15.9	-0.60
Kevin Garnett	84	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	-6	-8	15.2	19.4	-4.12	15.5	13.6	1.90
Rashad McCants	31	34	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.05	-18	-2	-16	16.4	15.2	1.13	15.1	15.5	-0.38

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	66	64	0.60	-0.10	0.69	-0.11	24	-4	28	15.0	16.2	-1.27	15.9	15.0	0.88
Jameer Nelson	60	58	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.01	18	2	16	15.0	16.1	-1.09	15.7	15.4	0.27
Grant Hill	70	70	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.20	24	-4	28	15.8	14.2	1.55	16.3	13.5	2.83
Dwight Howard	76	77	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.15	22	-2	24	15.3	15.5	-0.17	15.5	16.4	-0.95
DeShawn Stevenson	76	74	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.14	11	9	2	15.6	14.4	1.13	15.7	15.2	0.48
Steve Francis	65	63	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	19	-18	15.2	15.8	-0.67	14.7	17.6	-2.94
Tony Battie	32	32	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	21	-22	16.1	15.0	1.16	15.7	15.5	0.17
Mario Kasun	19	18	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.07	-2	22	-24	13.4	15.9	-2.43	15.1	15.7	-0.69
Terence Morris	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	17	-14	17.7	15.3	2.49	15.7	15.6	0.06
Pat Garrity	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	27.0	15.1	11.89	15.0	15.6	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.84,0.73,0.76,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 97, MEM 109	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
BOS 87, UTA 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.85,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
DAL 76, SAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.88,0.84,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%