NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	6.4 [534]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +39.0%
Sacramento Kings	95		Comeback	2.1 [393]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (SAC): -18.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.39	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.17,0.23,0.29,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.22	0.18	0.01	23	67%	0.40	1	-0.01	9	89%	0.07
Adrian Griffin	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.07	0.03	6	86%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	11	66%	0.15	4	-0.10	7	43%	-0.07
Devin Harris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.01	0.03	8	62%	0.06	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DeSagana Diop	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.14	-0.01	-0.03	19	32%	-0.07	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Keith Van Horn	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	4	25%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	8	61%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.01	10	55%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.04
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	12	41%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.05	0.03	13	63%	0.04	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.02
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	0.02	7	53%	0.00	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	9	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.07	0.01	16	39%	-0.09	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.7	36.0	18.8	29.0	2.8	37.0	150.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +32.0%

DAL +5.4%

DAL +16.6%

SAC -2.4%

SAC -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.4	15.5	15.6	112.9	102.2	104.4
season	16.4	15.3		109.0	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.8	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.6	16.0	15.8	16.5	15.4
SAC	15.2	15.3	16.2	15.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	46	47	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.30	19	-9	28	17.1	13.8	3.36	16.3	14.8	1.49
Dirk Nowitzki	78	78	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.29	15	-5	20	15.4	15.4	0.04	15.4	16.4	-1.03
Devin Harris	64	62	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.30	13	-3	16	14.9	16.7	-1.83	15.8	15.1	0.71
Adrian Griffin	58	58	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.28	7	3	4	16.4	13.9	2.48	15.8	15.2	0.59
Josh Howard	89	89	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	3	4	15.8	7.5	8.29	15.7	12.5	3.17
Jason Terry	55	56	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.20	1	9	-8	14.9	16.2	-1.23	14.6	16.9	-2.29
Keith Van Horn	34	34	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.08	-6	16	-22	13.9	16.3	-2.44	15.2	15.7	-0.48
DeSagana Diop	41	41	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.10	-6	16	-22	14.3	16.3	-2.08	15.5	15.5	-0.00

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenny Thomas	34	34	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.11	6	-16	22	16.5	15.0	1.47	16.8	14.7	2.10
Francisco Garcia	52	52	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.07	4	-14	18	15.8	15.2	0.61	16.5	14.1	2.34
Ronnie Price	35	35	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-11	12	14.5	16.2	-1.64	15.9	15.2	0.68
Jason Hart	11	11	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.03	-1	-9	8	17.0	15.3	1.66	14.3	15.6	-1.31
Corliss Williamson	42	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-3	-4	16.3	14.9	1.45	15.7	15.2	0.56
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	70	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.13	-12	2	-14	15.2	16.5	-1.31	14.4	18.6	-4.22
Brad Miller	74	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.16	-11	1	-12	15.3	16.5	-1.18	15.8	14.2	1.60
Kevin Martin	72	72	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.13	-17	7	-24	15.6	15.4	0.14	14.7	17.9	-3.20
Mike Bibby	75	75	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.27	-13	3	-16	15.3	16.7	-1.47	15.3	16.2	-0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.46,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.47,0.43,0.68,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.19,0.03,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 109, ATL 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.33,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.47,0.36,0.54,0.33,0.32,0.11,0.06,0.01,0	91.8%
PHI 104, ORL 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.01,0,0	91.4%
NYK 98, TOR 93	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.52,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.26,0.07,0.01,0.04,0	91.4%