NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	3.8 [1064]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +21.6%
Cleveland Cavaliers	115		Comeback	1.2 [1044]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -10.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	2	150%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.00	0.05	8	81%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06	0.10	0.00	0.05	22	58%	0.09	2	-0.03	13	85%	0.02
Gerald Fitch	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.04	7	64%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	10	45%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Gary Payton	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	5	27%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	10	43%	-0.02	4	-0.07	3	0%	-0.03
Alonzo Mourning	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.03	0.04	12	48%	-0.03	3	-0.07	5	40%	-0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.21	0.01	0.00	19	76%	0.25	4	-0.03	16	94%	0.05
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.02	0.01	-0.10	18	50%	0.13	3	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	-0.00	0.03	16	69%	0.13	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	78%	0.07	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	9	45%	-0.04	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.5	33.2	16.5	24.5	2.4	40.2	147.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +20.7%

CLE +7.8%

CLE +2.3%

CLE +12.3%

CLE +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	14.3	15.7	15.6	111.5	119.8	104.4
season	15.5	16.2		106.1	105.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	14.9	13.8	12.5	14.3
CLE	16.6	14.5	16.2	15.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Fitch	26	26	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.25	7	-15	22	14.7	14.1	0.59	15.6	15.8	-0.17
James Posey	69	68	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.35	9	-17	26	13.3	16.8	-3.55	16.5	13.9	2.66
Antoine Walker	55	57	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.38	9	-17	26	13.3	15.6	-2.36	15.6	15.9	-0.31
Alonzo Mourning	43	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-9	10	14.9	13.8	1.13	14.8	16.5	-1.67
Shandon Anderson	19	20	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	1	-10	17.0	13.6	3.42	14.8	16.0	-1.19
Jason Kapono	40	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-7	6	13.6	14.7	-1.13	14.6	16.6	-1.99
Shaquille O'Neal	53	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.12	-8	0	-8	13.8	14.9	-1.13	16.7	14.5	2.12
Udonis Haslem	41	40	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.15	-18	10	-28	15.6	13.3	2.36	15.6	15.8	-0.15
Dwyane Wade	80	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.03	-12	4	-16	14.0	15.3	-1.26	15.9	14.9	1.05
Gary Payton	54	54	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.03	-18	10	-28	15.2	13.1	2.07	15.8	15.7	0.04

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	92	92	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-1	10	15.7	16.0	-0.27	14.3	12.5	1.84
Eric Snow	49	49	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.15	21	-13	34	15.2	16.3	-1.05	13.8	14.8	-0.99
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	60	56	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.23	6	2	4	16.1	15.2	0.92	14.6	13.8	0.75
Donyell Marshall	78	81	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.20	6	2	4	15.3	17.8	-2.51	14.1	15.1	-0.96
Larry Hughes	86	87	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.36	-1	9	-10	15.8	15.1	0.71	14.1	15.3	-1.18
Damon Jones	63	63	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.29	-2	10	-12	15.7	15.9	-0.26	14.4	14.1	0.30
Alan Henderson	37	38	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.17	-1	9	-10	15.8	15.7	0.16	14.0	14.4	-0.47
Drew Gooden	15	14	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	6	-4	18.3	15.3	3.00	16.1	14.0	2.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.94,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.95,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 104, SAC 129	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.94,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
SAC 91, POR 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.79,0.84,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
MEM 79, DAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%