NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	108		Excitement	5.2 [777]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +18.0%
Toronto Raptors	98		Comeback	2.3 [250]		LVP	Mike Dunleavy (GSW): -10.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.03	-0.07	14	59%	0.16	1	0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Troy Murphy	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.14	0.02	0.06	12	74%	0.11	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Jason Richardson	0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	16	57%	0.13	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.12	0.05	0.10	13	75%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Zarko Cabarkapa	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	81%	0.12	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Miles	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	5	8%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.14	-0.00	0.03	15	71%	0.15	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	13	64%	0.16	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.12	0.04	0.10	10	86%	0.14	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Darrick Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	0.04	11	58%	0.04	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	28.6	15.7	25.3	2.5	28.3	126.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +19.5%

TOR -3.3%

GSW +8.7%

GSW +24.2%

GSW +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	TOR	NBA	GSW	TOR	NBA
this game	14.6	15.5	15.6	111.3	104.3	104.4
season	14.8	15.6		102.9	107.3
opponent	15.4	15.5		110.5	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.1	13.4	14.4	18.4	14.6
TOR	14.7	16.0	16.3	15.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	63	61	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.05	19	-9	28	14.1	15.7	-1.67	15.9	14.8	1.13
Andris Biedrins	39	41	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.06	14	-4	18	15.2	14.3	0.89	15.6	15.5	0.16
Jason Richardson	70	69	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.29	5	5	0	15.6	12.3	3.26	15.3	16.2	-0.92
Baron Davis	79	75	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	1	8	14.9	13.6	1.27	15.2	16.7	-1.46
Troy Murphy	75	70	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.18	3	7	-4	14.8	14.1	0.72	14.9	17.4	-2.49
Aaron Miles	19	20	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.12	1	9	-8	14.2	14.8	-0.61	15.8	15.4	0.42
Zarko Cabarkapa	35	35	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.11	1	9	-8	13.3	15.4	-2.04	17.2	14.5	2.72
Calbert Cheaney	25	23	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.10	8	2	6	12.2	15.5	-3.30	17.2	15.0	2.19
Mike Dunleavy	50	48	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	12	-14	14.7	14.6	0.19	15.0	16.1	-1.11
Adonal Foyle	30	28	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.18	-8	18	-26	15.8	14.1	1.62	14.7	15.9	-1.15

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafael Araujo	23	25	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-14	18	14.7	15.8	-1.04	15.7	14.3	1.39
Darrick Martin	8	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-6	2	17.5	15.3	2.16	12.6	14.9	-2.31
Chris Bosh	79	81	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-13	16	14.9	18.6	-3.66	15.1	12.3	2.80
Jalen Rose	22	22	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	-4	-2	16.7	15.2	1.52	13.0	15.1	-2.07
Jose Calderon	72	74	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-12	14	15.0	17.3	-2.35	15.7	11.1	4.61
Morris Peterson	67	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-6	2	14.3	18.5	-4.21	14.8	14.3	0.49
Matt Bonner	27	27	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.11	-9	-1	-8	18.5	14.3	4.15	13.7	15.0	-1.31
Mike James	66	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.20	-6	-4	-2	14.8	17.3	-2.51	15.0	13.7	1.36
Joey Graham	35	35	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.02	-16	6	-22	18.2	13.9	4.31	12.5	15.9	-3.34
Charlie Villanueva	71	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.07	-14	4	-18	15.8	14.7	1.04	14.3	15.7	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.34,0.2,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 94, NOK 77	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%
LAL 114, POR 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.3,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.04,0	93.9%
WAS 95, TOR 88	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.05,0.03,0,0,0	93.7%