NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	83		Excitement	4.7 [903]		MVP	Tony Battie (ORL): +7.0%
Orlando Magic	94		Comeback	1.3 [1021]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -11.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.04	0.03	12	58%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	14	59%	0.09	3	-0.04	11	82%	0.03
Julius Hodge	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	83%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	0.02	13	44%	0.00	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	45%	-0.02	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	9	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	6	41%	-0.04	3	-0.08	10	50%	-0.05

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	7	75%	0.10	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	13	69%	0.12	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.08	10	30%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	33%	0.00
Mario Kasun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	14	47%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	8	53%	-0.01	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	22%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	6	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	58%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	59%	0.07	6	-0.14	11	64%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	2.6	33.2	16.4	27.6	2.4	35.4	145.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +38.4%

DEN -3.6%

ORL +17.7%

DEN -9.3%

ORL +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	14.3	15.9	15.6	87.4	97.9	104.4
season	14.4	16.4		103.5	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.9		105.9	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.6	16.0	17.5	11.8	14.3
ORL	14.0	16.0	16.8	17.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julius Hodge	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-15	19	7.8	15.0	-7.22	16.5	15.8	0.69
Voshon Lenard	39	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.25	7	-18	25	13.3	14.9	-1.58	17.8	14.5	3.30
Earl Watson	20	21	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-11	11	12.6	14.7	-2.11	15.0	16.1	-1.19
Francisco Elson	46	46	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.20	5	-16	21	13.5	15.0	-1.48	17.5	14.4	3.06
Earl Boykins	45	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	-3	-5	15.0	13.6	1.32	16.4	15.4	0.97
Linas Kleiza	30	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	-5	-1	13.5	14.6	-1.16	15.2	16.2	-0.95
Andre Miller	68	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-9	7	14.4	13.9	0.57	16.0	15.5	0.58
Marcus Camby	68	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.15	-7	-4	-3	14.9	12.7	2.23	15.5	16.8	-1.32
Carmelo Anthony	72	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-2	-7	14.4	13.8	0.63	15.7	16.6	-0.93
Greg Buckner	40	41	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.08	-18	7	-25	15.0	13.7	1.36	14.0	17.3	-3.38
Eduardo Najera	37	36	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.10	-21	10	-31	16.0	13.1	2.89	15.1	16.3	-1.24

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	75	75	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.17	15	-4	19	15.4	17.7	-2.34	13.8	15.8	-2.01
Tony Battie	47	49	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.14	11	0	11	15.4	16.3	-0.94	14.9	13.6	1.23
Dwight Howard	82	80	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.15	8	3	5	15.3	19.4	-4.06	13.8	16.7	-2.93
Jameer Nelson	58	57	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.09	6	5	1	16.3	15.3	0.99	13.8	14.9	-1.14
Stacey Augmon	24	22	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.11	12	-1	13	14.0	16.5	-2.57	15.4	13.9	1.49
Pat Garrity	42	42	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.04	7	4	3	17.0	15.1	1.90	14.6	14.0	0.55
Steve Francis	75	74	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.18	-1	12	-13	15.8	16.0	-0.21	14.3	14.1	0.15
Hedo Turkoglu	29	28	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.13	-2	13	-15	14.6	16.5	-1.91	13.3	14.7	-1.39
Terence Morris	34	34	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	11	-11	18.2	14.6	3.64	15.3	13.7	1.65
Mario Kasun	14	14	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	12	-13	19.5	15.3	4.23	15.4	14.1	1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.7,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.67,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 96, BOS 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.64,0.72,0.76,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.3%
CHH 85, NJN 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1	95.2%
DAL 92, UTA 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%