NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	5.5 [742]		MVP	Elton Brand (LAC): +25.1%
Los Angeles Clippers	99		Comeback	2.7 [778]		LVP	Antoine Walker (MIA): -13.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shandon Anderson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	11	53%	0.06	1	-0.04	10	30%	-0.10
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	53%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Gary Payton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	3	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	-0.02	-0.04	14	55%	0.07	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
James Posey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	7	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.05	0.05	25	51%	0.03	5	-0.16	7	71%	-0.02
Antoine Walker	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	-0.03	-0.05	10	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.18	0.08	0.02	23	71%	0.30	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	11	69%	0.12	1	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.00	6	56%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	10	60%	0.06	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	0.01	-0.01	13	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	13	69%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	0.8	31.4	19.4	30.6	3.3	29.3	140.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +28.0%

LAC +7.8%

LAC +8.2%

LAC +12.0%

MIA -6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAC	NBA	MIA	LAC	NBA
this game	15.9	14.1	15.6	93.7	102.1	104.4
season	15.5	15.2		106.1	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		102.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	16.2	14.5	16.5	15.9
LAC	13.7	12.6	14.9	15.5	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	74	76	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.13	8	-18	26	15.2	18.5	-3.31	13.9	14.9	-0.94
Shandon Anderson	23	24	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.04	1	-11	12	16.3	15.8	0.48	14.1	14.1	0.00
Jason Williams	78	79	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.25	9	-19	28	15.3	18.7	-3.42	14.9	10.6	4.31
Jason Kapono	6	7	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	-2	-6	16.8	15.8	1.00	10.0	14.4	-4.44
Dwyane Wade	84	84	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.26	1	-11	12	15.9	15.9	-0.02	14.3	13.2	1.12
Alonzo Mourning	79	82	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.28	-7	-3	-4	16.1	15.1	0.93	14.8	10.3	4.56
James Posey	57	57	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.13	-14	4	-18	16.8	14.6	2.24	14.6	13.4	1.19
Gary Payton	37	40	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.06	-19	9	-28	15.4	16.2	-0.76	12.2	15.4	-3.19
Antoine Walker	37	36	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.01	-21	11	-32	17.0	15.2	1.85	12.9	14.8	-1.88

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quinton Ross	52	49	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.10	18	-8	26	13.6	14.7	-1.05	15.9	15.9	-0.04
Elton Brand	85	81	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.19	11	-1	12	14.6	11.0	3.56	16.1	14.8	1.30
Howard Eisley	26	26	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.15	12	-2	14	13.6	14.3	-0.75	18.5	14.9	3.59
Chris Wilcox	41	41	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	-1	12	13.1	14.9	-1.74	16.8	15.2	1.52
Cuttino Mobley	78	78	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	10	-10	15.2	9.7	5.46	15.7	17.0	-1.35
Corey Maggette	64	64	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	8	-6	13.2	15.9	-2.66	16.0	15.6	0.42
Chris Kaman	68	67	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.14	-2	12	-14	14.2	14.0	0.18	15.3	17.3	-2.02
Sam Cassell	71	69	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	12	-14	14.3	13.6	0.75	14.9	18.5	-3.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.86,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 85, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.8%
UTA 88, MEM 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.79,0.93,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%
POR 85, MIA 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.63,0.71,0.62,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.84,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%