NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	69		Excitement	1.7 [1315]		MVP	Mike Miller (MEM): +8.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	91		Comeback	1.1 [1139]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -8.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bo Outlaw	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terence Morris	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.09	0.00	0.09	14	69%	0.01	3	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Mario Kasun	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.11	0.00	-0.09	5	20%	-0.01	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	11	32%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	13	39%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.13	-0.00	-0.05	9	22%	-0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.18	0.00	0.10	13	81%	0.11	2	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	55%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	10	54%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	8	61%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	60%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	90%	0.05	4	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Lawrence Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	25%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Anthony Roberson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	4	33%	0.00	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	4	30%	-0.01	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	3.0	29.2	18.3	25.3	2.8	33.2	134.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +33.9%

MEM +10.5%

ORL -1.1%

MEM +5.6%

MEM +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MEM	NBA	ORL	MEM	NBA
this game	18.4	15.9	15.6	82.1	108.3	104.4
season	16.4	17.1		104.4	103.5
opponent	15.7	15.7		100.0	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	20.5	17.4	17.1	18.8	18.4
MEM	15.5	15.4	18.0	14.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Kasun	23	24	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.12	-5	-17	12	19.3	18.1	1.22	15.0	16.2	-1.28
Terence Morris	26	27	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	-19	16	18.2	18.5	-0.38	15.2	16.2	-0.95
Bo Outlaw	13	13	-0.04	-0.47	0.43	-0.01	-1	-21	20	14.7	19.1	-4.41	16.2	15.8	0.34
Kelvin Cato	6	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-20	18	20.3	18.3	2.06	16.3	15.8	0.45
Travis Diener	22	22	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	-18	14	19.8	17.9	1.84	15.0	16.2	-1.24
Pat Garrity	37	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-18	14	17.6	19.1	-1.47	15.9	15.9	-0.00
Stacey Augmon	23	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.16	0	-22	22	17.6	18.7	-1.17	15.1	16.2	-1.08
Tony Battie	36	35	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.09	-14	-8	-6	19.2	17.8	1.46	16.7	15.3	1.40
DeShawn Stevenson	59	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.05	-15	-7	-8	18.5	18.2	0.25	16.1	15.3	0.84
Jameer Nelson	62	62	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.13	-18	-4	-14	17.9	19.8	-1.84	16.2	15.0	1.24
Dwight Howard	56	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.30	-24	2	-26	19.4	16.4	3.09	15.4	16.8	-1.40
Hedo Turkoglu	57	56	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.18	-20	-2	-18	18.1	19.1	-1.02	16.5	14.6	1.84

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	48	49	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.43	31	-9	40	14.8	17.3	-2.47	20.2	15.9	4.24
Pau Gasol	51	51	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.26	23	-1	24	16.2	15.4	0.78	17.9	19.2	-1.26
Shane Battier	45	46	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.15	18	4	14	16.7	14.9	1.81	18.8	17.9	0.91
Bobby Jackson	38	40	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.28	19	3	16	14.4	17.1	-2.74	20.1	16.9	3.26
Jake Tsakalidis	35	34	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.14	14	8	6	14.9	16.5	-1.59	20.0	17.3	2.66
Damon Stoudamire	46	45	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.07	11	11	0	17.1	14.3	2.79	17.4	19.6	-2.24
Eddie Jones	39	40	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.10	10	12	-2	16.2	15.6	0.58	18.8	18.0	0.83
Lorenzen Wright	29	30	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	21	-20	16.9	15.3	1.57	18.4	18.4	-0.03
Dahntay Jones	28	27	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	24	-26	15.2	16.2	-0.98	17.3	18.9	-1.65
Hakim Warrick	35	34	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	23	-24	15.3	16.2	-0.90	17.5	19.0	-1.49
Lawrence Roberts	13	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	29	-36	16.8	15.7	1.07	13.7	19.2	-5.44
Anthony Roberson	13	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	29	-36	16.8	15.7	1.07	13.7	19.2	-5.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 89, LAL 117	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.1%
BOS 72, IND 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.1%
GSW 90, CHI 120	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.0%