NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	76		Excitement	5.2 [787]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): +9.6%
Chicago Bulls	85		Comeback	3.2 [725]		LVP	Steve Francis (ORL): -15.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	-0.00	0.03	11	77%	0.14	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Kelvin Cato	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	29%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.02	10	54%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	12	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	7	29%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.05	0.04	9	61%	0.01	4	-0.12	10	50%	-0.08
Steve Francis	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.03	-0.03	9	36%	-0.02	6	-0.14	7	71%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.03	-0.02	17	54%	0.13	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	19	52%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	4	90%	0.08	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	9	56%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	9	35%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Eddie Basden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	15%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Michael Sweetney	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	48%	0.02	3	-0.09	9	44%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.5	26.4	16.6	25.0	2.5	32.6	130.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +22.2%

ORL -4.9%

CHI +4.6%

CHI +24.8%

CHI +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	18.0	14.9	15.6	86.4	97.7	104.4
season	16.4	14.4		104.4	102.6
opponent	16.1	15.7		102.1	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	19.3	19.2	19.3	14.3	18.0
CHI	16.7	14.2	12.0	17.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelvin Cato	14	13	0.27	-0.77	1.03	-0.06	11	-20	31	17.9	18.0	-0.13	15.5	14.8	0.71
Stacey Augmon	8	7	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-7	5	16.4	18.1	-1.75	12.6	15.1	-2.57
Tony Battie	34	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	1	-11	19.9	16.8	3.12	15.4	14.7	0.70
Jameer Nelson	60	61	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.36	3	-12	15	16.2	21.7	-5.50	15.0	14.7	0.34
Hedo Turkoglu	74	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-5	1	18.4	15.9	2.51	15.3	12.8	2.54
DeShawn Stevenson	48	46	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.07	-15	6	-21	19.4	16.3	3.05	14.1	15.9	-1.79
Pat Garrity	52	51	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.22	-6	-3	-3	17.5	18.7	-1.23	15.3	14.4	0.83
Steve Francis	79	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.19	-12	3	-15	18.1	17.0	1.08	15.0	14.4	0.60
Dwight Howard	71	73	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.27	-10	1	-11	17.6	19.4	-1.79	14.6	16.6	-2.04

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	79	79	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.19	15	-6	21	15.1	13.4	1.71	18.0	17.4	0.58
Tyson Chandler	61	59	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.12	10	-1	11	14.8	15.3	-0.54	19.1	15.6	3.50
Michael Sweetney	43	45	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	-4	17	14.9	15.0	-0.09	17.6	18.3	-0.70
Luol Deng	60	61	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.28	0	9	-9	15.3	14.1	1.14	17.2	19.6	-2.40
Andres Nocioni	58	59	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	1	7	15.8	13.1	2.74	18.0	17.8	0.21
Eric Piatkowski	9	9	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.01	6	3	3	11.4	15.3	-3.89	16.9	18.1	-1.20
Eddie Basden	9	9	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.01	6	3	3	11.4	15.3	-3.89	16.9	18.1	-1.20
Chris Duhon	48	50	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	6	-3	15.6	14.1	1.46	17.7	18.3	-0.52
Othella Harrington	20	19	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.21	-4	13	-17	13.6	15.3	-1.73	17.8	18.0	-0.23
Ben Gordon	38	38	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.20	-6	15	-21	14.6	15.2	-0.58	18.4	17.6	0.75
Darius Songaila	10	12	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	15	-21	14.5	15.0	-0.49	18.1	17.9	0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.73,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.55,0.63,0.77,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.83,0.81,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 104, DEN 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.5,0.45,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.96,1,1,1	94.3%
MIN 104, BOS 117	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%
NYK 89, PHX 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%