NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	104		Excitement	5.4 [765]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +17.4%
Denver Nuggets	111		Comeback	2.8 [896]		LVP	Chris Kaman (LAC): -13.5%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.01	0.01	9	86%	0.16	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Blake Griffin	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.02	0.01	18	65%	0.19	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Rasual Butler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.04	0.01	10	57%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
DeAndre Jordan	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.00	0.05	12	55%	0.02	2	-0.05	14	64%	-0.08
Eric Bledsoe	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	9	63%	0.04	4	-0.09	1	0%	-0.02
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	8	28%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Kaman	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	18	28%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.20	0.03	0.06	20	71%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.04	-0.02	12	69%	0.21	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	9	53%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	9	55%	0.10	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	11	48%	0.05	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	47%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.01	10	59%	0.09	4	-0.14	7	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	3.7	34.0	18.4	26.4	4.5	32.0	143.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +34.5%

DEN +17.0%

LAC -4.1%

DEN +3.6%

LAC -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	DEN	NBA	LAC	DEN	NBA
this game	15.4	15.6	15.5	110.6	120.7	105.7
season	15.4	14.3		104.4	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.3		106.1	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	16.1	14.9	19.0	12.3	15.4
DEN	16.6	15.1	15.2	15.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al-Farouq Aminu	18	18	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.11	9	-16	25	15.2	15.4	-0.23	13.6	16.1	-2.50
Craig Smith	43	42	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.26	6	-13	19	13.8	16.8	-2.97	15.6	15.5	0.06
Rasual Butler	38	35	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-5	3	15.2	15.5	-0.33	15.1	15.8	-0.68
DeAndre Jordan	15	15	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-3	-1	14.1	15.7	-1.59	18.5	15.0	3.47
Chris Kaman	67	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-1	-5	16.7	12.1	4.62	15.3	16.2	-0.82
Blake Griffin	66	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-2	-3	15.4	15.4	0.07	15.3	16.2	-0.88
Eric Bledsoe	72	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.21	-8	1	-9	15.8	14.2	1.60	15.8	14.8	0.98
Ryan Gomes	72	71	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.24	-10	3	-13	15.5	15.1	0.35	15.8	14.7	1.16
Eric Gordon	79	78	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.19	-15	8	-23	15.1	16.9	-1.82	15.6	15.4	0.25

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	73	75	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.14	14	-7	21	15.4	16.3	-0.95	15.7	14.4	1.23
Chauncey Billups	52	54	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	-7	21	15.4	15.7	-0.33	16.6	13.7	2.92
Arron Afflalo	72	72	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	3	1	15.3	16.6	-1.32	15.6	14.8	0.77
Melvin Ely	55	56	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.08	9	-2	11	15.6	15.5	0.13	16.9	13.1	3.81
Al Harrington	63	63	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.29	1	6	-5	15.8	15.1	0.72	13.7	18.8	-5.08
J.R. Smith	51	53	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.30	-3	10	-13	15.7	15.4	0.23	13.5	17.9	-4.47
Shelden Williams	54	56	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	6	-5	15.8	15.2	0.56	17.3	12.6	4.65
Ty Lawson	40	41	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.21	-5	12	-17	15.7	15.4	0.33	13.4	16.9	-3.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.5,0.45,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 71, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.77,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
CLE 85, WAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
NYK 89, PHX 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%