NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	83		Excitement	4.4 [953]		MVP	Derek Fisher (GSW): +15.4%
Golden State Warriors	99		Comeback	1.5 [975]		LVP	J.R. Smith (NOK): -12.7%

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	82%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
David West	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	10	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	8	62%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jackson Vroman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Kirk Snyder	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	-0.00	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	8	56%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bostjan Nachbar	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Paul	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	12	54%	0.06	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	8	16%	-0.10	1	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03
J.R. Smith	-0.13	0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	10	18%	-0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	-0.00	10	85%	0.20	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	13	52%	0.08	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	8	59%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	16	50%	0.07	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Taft	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	20	38%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Aaron Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	7	41%	-0.04	2	-0.00	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	32.2	16.4	25.4	2.3	26.3	130.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +32.7%

GSW +5.9%

GSW +5.1%

GSW +7.2%

NOK -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOK	GSW	NBA	NOK	GSW	NBA
this game	17.1	15.1	15.6	91.2	112.5	104.4
season	16.3	14.8		101.2	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.3		104.0	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOK	18.1	14.4	19.2	17.0	17.1
GSW	14.6	15.0	14.1	16.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bostjan Nachbar	23	21	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.03	1	-17	18	16.2	17.4	-1.15	13.7	15.5	-1.84
Jackson Vroman	8	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-19	22	15.5	17.2	-1.73	16.1	15.0	1.17
Rasual Butler	22	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-15	14	17.0	17.1	-0.10	16.5	14.6	1.85
Kirk Snyder	22	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-15	14	17.0	17.1	-0.10	16.5	14.6	1.85
Brandon Bass	43	43	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.08	-7	-9	2	15.4	18.6	-3.19	15.7	14.5	1.14
P.J. Brown	39	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.12	-3	-13	10	18.8	15.8	2.96	15.1	15.0	0.06
J.R. Smith	49	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	-7	-2	16.7	17.5	-0.87	14.5	15.8	-1.30
Chris Andersen	36	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.19	-17	1	-18	17.4	16.9	0.47	14.9	15.2	-0.30
Speedy Claxton	53	51	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	-5	-6	17.5	16.5	0.99	15.7	14.2	1.56
David West	56	53	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.12	-8	-8	0	17.2	16.8	0.40	14.5	15.9	-1.31
Chris Paul	58	56	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-5	-6	17.1	17.1	-0.02	14.4	16.2	-1.71
Desmond Mason	46	46	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.05	-16	0	-16	17.5	16.6	0.94	15.1	15.1	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	71	75	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.04	14	2	12	15.6	12.9	2.71	16.5	19.6	-3.02
Baron Davis	60	64	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.01	15	1	14	14.4	16.5	-2.05	18.1	14.6	3.48
Adonal Foyle	30	31	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.05	13	3	10	14.0	15.6	-1.57	19.5	15.8	3.60
Derek Fisher	52	54	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.23	21	-5	26	14.9	15.3	-0.45	16.4	18.0	-1.60
Troy Murphy	56	59	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.02	12	4	8	15.1	15.1	0.01	17.4	16.5	0.89
Mike Dunleavy	39	41	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	12	-8	14.7	15.3	-0.58	17.4	16.8	0.57
Ike Diogu	32	31	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.01	4	12	-8	15.2	15.0	0.29	15.1	18.1	-2.95
Calbert Cheaney	39	39	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.08	6	10	-4	15.6	14.7	0.89	16.0	17.9	-1.84
Aaron Miles	19	17	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.02	1	15	-14	14.3	15.3	-1.03	16.7	17.2	-0.46
Andris Biedrins	30	30	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	17	-18	16.1	14.6	1.51	17.9	16.7	1.23
Zarko Cabarkapa	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	16.1	15.0	1.17	15.5	17.2	-1.73
Chris Taft	5	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	22	-28	16.6	15.0	1.62	17.0	17.1	-0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.53,0.46,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 81, SEA 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.47,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
MEM 83, DEN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.59,0.69,0.58,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
MIL 77, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%