NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	87		Excitement	7.6 [319]		MVP	Al Jefferson (BOS): +11.4%
Boston Celtics	83		Comeback	1.8 [351]		LVP	Raef LaFrentz (BOS): -30.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.07	0.00	13	57%	0.20	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.02
Pat Garrity	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	53%	0.08	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	8	61%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Stacey Augmon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	15	49%	0.01	1	-0.03	9	67%	-0.02
Kelvin Cato	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	3	56%	0.09	4	-0.16	12	50%	-0.07
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	8	39%	-0.06	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.06

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	5	69%	0.11	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.07
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.01	18	54%	0.03	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	61%	0.09	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.04
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.05	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Justin Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.00	16	46%	-0.02	5	-0.16	3	67%	-0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19	-0.19	-0.04	-0.15	0.00	7	37%	-0.14	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.3	-0.30	-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	10	10%	-0.19	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.7	29.3	17.3	26.5	2.5	41.2	145.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +47.5%

BOS -4.4%

BOS -12.2%

ORL +17.7%

ORL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	BOS	NBA	ORL	BOS	NBA
this game	16.9	14.9	15.6	95.6	92.2	104.4
season	16.4	14.8		104.4	103.3
opponent	15.8	15.7		104.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.8	19.3	15.6	16.1	16.9
BOS	14.5	15.0	18.7	12.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Garrity	35	32	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.08	17	-13	30	17.3	16.7	0.62	15.4	14.7	0.72
Jameer Nelson	50	48	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	3	-2	17.0	16.8	0.22	13.1	17.0	-3.87
Steve Francis	71	71	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.37	0	4	-4	16.2	19.3	-3.14	15.0	14.6	0.35
Hedo Turkoglu	60	61	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.13	5	-1	6	17.1	16.6	0.49	15.8	13.1	2.62
Stacey Augmon	32	31	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	5	-6	16.0	17.4	-1.34	12.5	16.2	-3.65
DeShawn Stevenson	75	74	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.19	1	3	-2	16.9	16.8	0.11	14.9	14.9	-0.03
Dwight Howard	65	66	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.24	-3	7	-10	17.5	15.3	2.18	15.1	14.5	0.62
Kelvin Cato	23	23	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.25	-5	9	-14	17.8	16.6	1.18	14.9	14.9	-0.06
Tony Battie	44	44	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	-1	6	16.6	17.2	-0.60	16.7	13.2	3.55

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Reed	28	28	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.04	5	-9	14	14.8	15.0	-0.13	16.9	16.9	-0.06
Orien Greene	0	1	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-4	4	0.0	14.9	-14.91	3.0	17.1	-14.06
Brian Scalabrine	12	14	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-8	12	14.7	14.9	-0.28	16.8	16.9	-0.14
Kendrick Perkins	27	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	2	-8	16.9	14.0	2.88	16.8	17.0	-0.19
Dan Dickau	41	42	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.40	7	-11	18	13.0	16.5	-3.51	17.5	16.4	1.16
Al Jefferson	23	24	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-1	-2	16.3	14.4	1.87	16.3	17.1	-0.77
Raef LaFrentz	47	47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	6	-16	15.9	13.8	2.06	16.0	17.9	-1.95
Delonte West	61	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	1	-6	15.4	13.9	1.45	16.2	18.2	-1.99
Mark Blount	58	59	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-5	6	13.6	17.2	-3.58	18.2	14.4	3.80
Ricky Davis	78	79	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-1	-2	14.7	16.2	-1.45	17.6	12.1	5.55
Paul Pierce	75	75	-0.61	0.12	-0.73	-0.32	-10	6	-16	15.1	14.1	0.93	16.3	19.7	-3.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 98, DEN 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.35,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.31,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.1,0.04,0	92.7%
SAS 97, SAC 91	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.38,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.15,0.04,0.06,0.17,0	92.6%
IND 94, GSW 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.43,0.52,0.32,0.47,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.29,0.15,0.17,0	92.3%