NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	90		Excitement	5.6 [703]		MVP	Mickael Pietrus (GSW): +4.3%
Golden State Warriors	87		Comeback	1.5 [421]		LVP	Baron Davis (GSW): -30.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.02	0.03	19	61%	0.11	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Bobby Simmons	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03	0.05	-0.03	-0.01	14	57%	0.07	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.02
Jiri Welsch	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	12	35%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	9	45%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09	-0.14	0.02	-0.03	9	37%	0.01	5	-0.10	6	83%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	9	69%	0.08	2	-0.03	8	50%	-0.05
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.01	8	64%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.01	0.05	9	70%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Taft	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.05	0.00	17	55%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	3	12%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	6	21%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.2,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.3,-0.32,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.36,-0.36,-0.3	-0.30	-0.19	-0.09	0.02	21	24%	-0.25	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.4	32.2	15.5	25.5	2.6	34.1	134.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +31.4%

MIL +5.4%

MIL +18.4%

GSW -9.4%

MIL +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	GSW	NBA	MIL	GSW	NBA
this game	16.2	14.3	15.6	94.7	92.6	104.4
season	15.5	14.8		104.6	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		104.0	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.0	15.2	14.8	17.9	16.2
GSW	13.6	13.1	15.8	14.7	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. Ford	79	76	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.34	11	-8	19	15.3	20.6	-5.26	15.0	11.3	3.64
Joe Smith	62	62	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.26	6	-3	9	15.6	17.3	-1.66	15.1	12.7	2.41
Michael Redd	74	75	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	-2	7	15.0	20.4	-5.38	14.8	12.2	2.59
Bobby Simmons	67	65	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	0	3	16.3	15.8	0.52	15.2	12.3	2.84
Jamaal Magloire	56	57	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	-1	5	16.0	16.5	-0.51	14.3	14.3	0.01
Andrew Bogut	29	29	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	0	3	18.1	15.3	2.75	14.1	14.3	-0.20
Jiri Welsch	26	26	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	1	1	16.2	16.2	-0.05	13.0	14.8	-1.82
Charlie Bell	11	11	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	7	-11	17.7	16.0	1.74	10.4	14.8	-4.43
Mo Williams	40	38	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.35	-12	15	-27	17.6	15.2	2.39	12.3	15.6	-3.38
Toni Kukoc	31	31	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	6	-9	18.4	15.1	3.26	12.9	15.0	-2.05

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	47	47	0.28	-0.78	1.05	-0.49	26	-29	55	13.8	14.8	-1.02	18.4	14.0	4.38
Mickael Pietrus	60	62	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.48	18	-21	39	13.2	16.2	-2.98	16.9	14.9	1.92
Chris Taft	6	7	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.02	1	-4	5	16.3	14.1	2.20	12.7	16.5	-3.75
Zarko Cabarkapa	10	11	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-5	7	13.0	14.4	-1.43	21.4	15.5	5.85
Calbert Cheaney	8	8	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-1	-1	14.2	14.3	-0.03	14.2	16.4	-2.12
Andris Biedrins	18	17	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	1	-5	14.3	14.3	0.07	15.0	16.4	-1.45
Jason Richardson	79	79	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.34	0	-3	3	14.5	12.9	1.60	16.1	16.7	-0.60
Mike Dunleavy	55	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	7	-17	13.8	14.9	-1.06	15.4	17.2	-1.73
Adonal Foyle	47	48	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.02	-18	15	-33	14.7	13.8	0.94	16.7	15.7	1.01
Troy Murphy	73	73	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.26	-14	11	-25	14.9	12.1	2.81	15.2	19.3	-4.07
Baron Davis	67	69	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.26	-14	11	-25	14.6	13.4	1.27	15.5	18.1	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.17,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.15,0.1,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 129, MIL 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
MIL 100, NYK 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.2%
SEA 109, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%