NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	3.0 [1199]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +15.3%
Boston Celtics	82		Comeback	1.1 [611]		LVP	Ricky Davis (BOS): -12.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.07	0.02	5	100%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.18	-0.01	0.06	17	72%	0.14	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Manu Ginobili	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.02	-0.04	8	52%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.02
Tony Parker	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	16	64%	0.11	4	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	100%	0.00	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Sanders	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	3	75%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	-0.00	-0.02	3	100%	0.05	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	75%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	19	47%	0.05	4	-0.07	5	80%	-0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	12	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	0.05	12	46%	-0.03	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	-0.04	17	29%	-0.07	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	1.7	27.7	15.8	28.9	1.8	28.4	126.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.2%

SAS +7.6%

BOS -3.3%

SAS +2.3%

SAS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	BOS	NBA	SAS	BOS	NBA
this game	16.3	14.8	15.6	112.0	88.2	104.4
season	16.3	14.8		106.0	103.3
opponent	15.8	15.6		104.8	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.7	17.8	12.4	19.0	16.3
BOS	14.0	13.5	17.1	14.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	74	74	0.63	-0.13	0.75	-0.20	28	-7	35	15.5	19.9	-4.48	15.5	12.3	3.20
Tony Parker	62	63	0.61	-0.11	0.73	-0.27	30	-9	39	14.9	19.3	-4.35	15.3	13.7	1.58
Tim Duncan	61	60	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.25	29	-8	37	15.5	18.0	-2.46	15.3	13.8	1.48
Manu Ginobili	56	55	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.01	13	8	5	16.0	16.9	-0.91	14.7	15.0	-0.28
Rasho Nesterovic	43	44	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.06	14	7	7	15.1	17.4	-2.38	15.4	14.3	1.06
Melvin Sanders	36	36	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.17	10	11	-1	16.4	16.3	0.13	15.6	14.3	1.31
Robert Horry	43	43	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.11	8	13	-5	16.3	16.4	-0.11	14.9	14.7	0.23
Nazr Mohammed	13	13	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	21	-21	19.2	15.9	3.28	12.0	15.3	-3.26
Beno Udrih	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	24	-27	21.6	15.9	5.67	11.6	15.1	-3.50
Sean Marks	24	26	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	27	-33	20.0	15.1	4.90	13.3	15.4	-2.08
Fabricio Oberto	15	16	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.11	-8	29	-37	20.6	15.5	5.09	11.7	15.5	-3.77
Nick Van Exel	26	28	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.15	-10	31	-41	18.4	15.5	2.85	14.2	15.1	-0.85

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Dickau	41	41	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.07	7	-28	35	14.9	14.7	0.22	17.9	15.1	2.78
Brian Scalabrine	32	33	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.02	5	-26	31	14.9	14.7	0.20	17.2	15.9	1.27
Ryan Gomes	37	36	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.05	1	-22	23	13.6	15.6	-1.92	18.1	15.2	2.91
Al Jefferson	59	59	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.05	-1	-20	19	15.2	14.1	1.09	17.7	13.8	3.93
Kendrick Perkins	11	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-19	17	12.2	15.2	-2.98	19.5	15.9	3.64
Justin Reed	13	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-21	21	12.5	15.2	-2.73	18.8	15.9	2.92
Orien Greene	17	16	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-21	21	13.8	15.0	-1.20	18.2	15.9	2.32
Ricky Davis	69	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.06	-12	-9	-3	15.0	14.4	0.58	15.9	17.8	-1.93
Mark Blount	35	35	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	0.13	-24	3	-27	14.4	15.0	-0.61	13.7	17.9	-4.23
Raef LaFrentz	37	35	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	0.17	-26	5	-31	14.8	14.8	0.01	14.1	17.7	-3.68
Paul Pierce	68	67	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	0.20	-28	7	-35	15.6	12.6	2.96	15.5	18.7	-3.22
Delonte West	49	49	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	0.14	-27	6	-33	15.3	14.2	1.06	14.8	18.0	-3.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 145, LAL 130	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
CHA 129, ATL 117	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.31,0.22,0.3,0.28,0.33,0.32,0.33,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.27,0.21,0.16,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%
LAL 106, WAS 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.13,0	94.8%