NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	88		Excitement	5.7 [698]		MVP	Steve Francis (ORL): +4.6%
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	83		Comeback	1.6 [364]		LVP	Chris Paul (NOK): -9.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Francis	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.05	-0.03	0.06	-0.02	19	51%	0.17	5	-0.13	9	89%	0.02
Pat Garrity	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	8	67%	0.10	3	-0.08	8	75%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	46%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	64%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	54%	0.06	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.00
Terence Morris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.02	0.01	15	65%	0.14	3	-0.10	7	57%	-0.07
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	9	47%	0.03	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	9	60%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jackson Vroman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	30%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
David West	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.02	-0.04	15	40%	-0.02	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	13	36%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	1.8	28.2	11.7	34.4	0.3	42.3	147.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +30.3%

ORL +14.3%

ORL +22.8%

NOK -19.0%

ORL +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NOK	NBA	ORL	NOK	NBA
this game	16.3	15.7	15.6	96.7	93.3	104.4
season	16.4	16.3		104.4	101.2
opponent	15.3	15.7		104.1	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.4	17.0	15.7	19.6	16.3
NOK	15.4	15.0	17.9	14.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	67	67	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-6	17	16.2	16.6	-0.45	16.0	14.9	1.05
Steve Francis	74	74	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	-1	7	15.9	18.2	-2.38	15.8	15.4	0.36
DeShawn Stevenson	81	77	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.42	-1	6	-7	16.6	14.0	2.58	15.7	15.6	0.13
Hedo Turkoglu	51	51	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.04	14	-9	23	14.7	18.3	-3.57	17.0	13.9	3.05
Jameer Nelson	48	47	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.29	1	4	-3	17.2	15.2	2.02	14.6	16.9	-2.33
Tony Battie	39	38	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.02	8	-3	11	15.3	17.1	-1.82	16.3	15.2	1.08
Kelvin Cato	50	50	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	8	-11	17.7	14.5	3.20	15.5	16.0	-0.49
Bo Outlaw	1	0	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	7	-9	1.0	16.5	-15.47	0.0	15.7	-15.70
Terence Morris	22	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.13	-5	10	-15	16.1	16.3	-0.21	13.9	16.2	-2.22
Pat Garrity	22	22	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	9	-13	18.1	15.7	2.37	14.9	16.0	-1.05

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jackson Vroman	9	9	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.02	4	-9	13	13.2	16.0	-2.75	17.1	16.2	0.90
Rasual Butler	24	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-4	3	15.4	15.8	-0.44	17.5	15.9	1.64
J.R. Smith	38	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.15	1	-6	7	16.0	15.5	0.53	15.0	17.4	-2.36
Bostjan Nachbar	41	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	1	-7	16.4	15.1	1.29	15.0	17.4	-2.41
Desmond Mason	48	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-6	7	15.1	16.4	-1.29	17.8	14.7	3.12
P.J. Brown	71	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.41	3	-8	11	15.8	15.2	0.66	17.1	13.2	3.83
Chris Andersen	24	26	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	4	-13	15.7	15.7	-0.04	15.7	16.5	-0.85
Speedy Claxton	51	51	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.21	-6	1	-7	15.5	16.0	-0.53	17.0	15.4	1.64
David West	73	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	1	-7	16.1	14.1	1.99	15.9	18.0	-2.12
Chris Paul	66	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	1	-7	15.6	15.9	-0.29	15.7	18.3	-2.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 113, NOH 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	93.7%
UTA 99, PHX 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.07,0,0,0	93.2%
GSW 86, POR 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.41,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.02,0	93.2%