NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	7.3 [373]		MVP	Bobby Simmons (MIL): +22.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	105		Comeback	8.3 [247]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -21.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.05	0.00	4	110%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.09	-0.00	6	67%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.02	9	68%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.03	10	54%	0.03	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.04
Jason Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.03	16	56%	0.09	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.07	-0.09	0.03	14	50%	-0.04	5	-0.16	2	0%	-0.03
Dwyane Wade	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.21,-0.22	-0.10	-0.13	-0.01	17	44%	-0.09	4	-0.13	14	64%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.09	0.18	0.05	17	61%	0.27	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.05
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.03	0.02	6	89%	0.12	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.06
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.02	13	50%	0.11	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	14	66%	0.17	4	-0.13	7	71%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	13	43%	-0.06	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	23.9	15.8	27.2	2.5	41.4	136.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +12.9%

MIL +10.4%

MIL +17.7%

MIL +8.5%

MIL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.0	15.0	15.6	106.4	114.1	104.4
season	15.5	15.5		106.1	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	15.8	16.8	15.6	16.0
MIL	14.1	16.9	16.0	13.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kapono	52	51	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.05	6	-11	17	15.6	16.5	-0.92	16.2	13.5	2.67
Alonzo Mourning	70	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.40	6	-11	17	15.6	17.2	-1.58	14.2	17.2	-3.00
Udonis Haslem	73	71	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	3	-11	16.6	13.9	2.75	15.3	13.8	1.50
Antoine Walker	76	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-1	-3	15.8	16.6	-0.77	14.7	16.1	-1.42
Gary Payton	47	47	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.38	-6	1	-7	15.8	16.1	-0.32	16.1	13.8	2.37
Dwyane Wade	70	70	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.39	-6	1	-7	16.4	14.7	1.66	14.6	16.2	-1.66
Jason Williams	82	78	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.29	-13	8	-21	15.9	16.5	-0.59	14.5	17.8	-3.32

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	74	76	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.37	13	-8	21	14.5	16.9	-2.46	16.1	15.4	0.74
Bobby Simmons	73	73	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.47	6	-1	7	14.5	16.6	-2.10	16.4	14.4	2.01
T.J. Ford	83	85	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.33	9	-4	13	14.8	16.9	-2.13	16.0	15.7	0.36
Mo Williams	45	47	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	0	5	15.1	14.8	0.32	15.5	16.5	-1.04
Jamaal Magloire	62	63	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	5	-5	14.5	15.8	-1.28	16.7	14.5	2.15
Dan Gadzuric	14	14	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	1	3	18.7	14.3	4.42	16.2	15.9	0.26
Toni Kukoc	30	31	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.13	3	2	1	18.0	13.5	4.55	15.6	16.2	-0.51
Charlie Bell	18	18	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.02	-8	13	-21	16.9	14.5	2.46	15.4	16.1	-0.74
Andrew Bogut	61	63	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.06	-7	12	-19	13.7	17.5	-3.75	15.2	17.5	-2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.42,0.34,0.15,0.14,0.26,0.14,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.45,0.78,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 98, NYK 104	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.31,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.32,0.55,0.65,0.84,1	92.2%
SAC 114, LAL 121	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.33,0.43,0.32,0.24,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.37,0.83,0.92,1	91.1%
ATL 96, CHA 100	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.13,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.53,0.72,0.87,0.92,1	91.0%