NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	79		Excitement	7.8 [288]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): +19.3%
Washington Wizards	87		Comeback	3.4 [698]		LVP	Jarvis Hayes (WAS): -18.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.01	12	56%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
DeShawn Stevenson	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	12	46%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.04	0.02	14	41%	0.01	1	-0.02	13	54%	-0.11
Steve Francis	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,-0.05,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	16	41%	-0.04	3	-0.05	7	71%	-0.03
Bo Outlaw	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Terence Morris	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	7	29%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	4	17%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	8	12%	-0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.15	0.01	23	58%	0.30	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.03
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.10	-0.01	14	59%	0.23	2	-0.06	11	73%	-0.02
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.08	0.00	1	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.09,0.08	0.08	-0.02	0.09	-0.01	7	39%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	5	50%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.08
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	0.00	11	25%	-0.14	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.4	28.5	16.4	30.3	1.6	40.4	148.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +73.6%

WAS +3.8%

ORL -16.4%

ORL -8.8%

ORL -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	18.1	15.0	15.6	90.8	100.0	104.4
season	16.4	15.1		104.4	107.4
opponent	15.6	15.7		105.5	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	18.7	15.6	19.7	18.5	18.1
WAS	14.0	18.0	13.0	15.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	73	73	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-10	12	18.1	18.3	-0.20	14.8	16.1	-1.38
Terence Morris	21	20	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-7	6	18.6	18.0	0.66	18.3	14.0	4.30
DeShawn Stevenson	64	66	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.23	0	-8	8	18.6	16.9	1.69	14.6	16.2	-1.58
Tony Battie	54	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.12	-4	-4	0	19.7	15.5	4.24	14.2	16.2	-1.95
Dwight Howard	73	74	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.22	-1	-7	6	17.8	19.9	-2.16	14.8	15.9	-1.10
Kelvin Cato	21	20	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-1	-6	18.2	18.1	0.16	15.8	14.7	1.12
Bo Outlaw	21	22	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	0	-8	14.7	19.2	-4.55	15.5	14.8	0.62
Jameer Nelson	35	34	-0.47	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	1	-10	17.6	18.4	-0.81	16.1	14.2	1.90
Steve Francis	73	73	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.14	-12	4	-16	18.0	18.9	-0.97	14.5	17.8	-3.33

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Atkins	44	44	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-6	20	15.2	14.8	0.39	17.6	18.7	-1.06
Michael Ruffin	42	40	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.38	7	1	6	15.7	14.3	1.45	17.3	18.8	-1.55
Jarvis Hayes	47	50	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	3	2	16.2	13.6	2.62	18.6	17.5	1.14
Antawn Jamison	67	67	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	-1	10	14.4	17.1	-2.74	18.0	18.4	-0.37
Gilbert Arenas	77	76	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.18	7	1	6	14.7	16.9	-2.16	18.7	14.4	4.29
Calvin Booth	19	18	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.07	8	0	8	13.3	15.5	-2.21	17.8	18.2	-0.43
Brendan Haywood	55	55	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	6	-4	14.5	15.7	-1.20	18.9	16.8	2.06
Etan Thomas	13	14	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	10	-12	19.4	14.2	5.17	15.6	18.6	-3.03
Antonio Daniels	50	51	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.05	-2	10	-12	14.7	15.4	-0.73	17.9	18.5	-0.61
Jared Jeffries	21	20	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.06	-8	16	-24	14.0	15.3	-1.24	18.6	18.0	0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.52,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.63,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 115, LAC 119	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.45,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.38,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.81,0.69,0.59,0.66,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.83,1	92.7%
LAC 89, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.6,0.54,0.38,0.52,0.43,0.58,0.74,0.81,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.94,1,1	92.4%
DET 74, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.97,0.96,1	92.3%