NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	3.5 [1130]		MVP	Mo Williams (MIL): +4.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	113		Comeback	1.3 [1035]		LVP	DeShawn Stevenson (ORL): -15.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelvin Cato	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Kasun	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	8	53%	-0.00	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	16	50%	0.07	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Barrett	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	0.00	0.06	8	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.04	9	56%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	5	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Brandon Hunter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	9	62%	-0.01	3	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	17	50%	0.00	4	-0.06	4	25%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.20	-0.01	-0.06	15	41%	-0.06	6	-0.09	11	64%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.04	12	54%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	55%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	65%	0.05	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.04
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	5	56%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Reece Gaines	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	3	37%	-0.00	2	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.08	0.00	0.08	6	79%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	5	30%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	13	63%	0.03	2	-0.04	9	67%	-0.02
Erick Strickland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	14	50%	0.00	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	-0.04	6	30%	-0.07	1	-0.00	8	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	530.8	1.8	30.2	16.4	30.4	2.5	27.2	639.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +22.3%

MIL +4.6%

MIL +4.1%

MIL +17.4%

MIL +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	13.4	14.4	15.5	99.0	109.7	104.0
season	14.3	16.0		102.9	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.5		107.4	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.3	12.9	16.3	12.3	13.4
MIL	16.5	13.8	12.5	14.8	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Kasun	23	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.27	8	-18	26	12.3	13.8	-1.46	13.0	14.8	-1.89
Kelvin Cato	14	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	-8	6	11.4	13.8	-2.33	15.1	14.3	0.79
Mark Jones	30	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.44	11	-21	32	13.3	13.5	-0.20	14.0	14.6	-0.59
Tony Battie	44	44	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	2	-14	14.5	12.6	1.91	15.6	13.5	2.10
Brandon Hunter	52	49	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-14	18	12.6	14.3	-1.65	14.3	14.5	-0.20
DeShawn Stevenson	78	77	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.13	-15	5	-20	13.4	13.5	-0.03	14.5	14.0	0.47
Jameer Nelson	73	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.18	-17	7	-24	13.8	12.5	1.37	14.4	14.4	0.03
Stacey Augmon	53	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	0	-10	13.2	13.7	-0.44	14.0	14.8	-0.78
Dwight Howard	82	82	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.10	-16	6	-22	13.9	11.7	2.23	14.4	14.3	0.13
Andre Barrett	71	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.37	-1	-9	8	13.4	13.5	-0.15	14.4	14.4	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	71	72	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.15	19	-9	28	14.6	14.0	0.56	14.4	11.2	3.17
Zaza Pachulia	39	41	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.10	14	-4	18	14.5	14.3	0.24	13.1	13.6	-0.49
Toni Kukoc	60	61	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.33	-1	11	-12	14.1	14.8	-0.65	12.5	14.7	-2.22
Marcus Fizer	45	47	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.25	1	9	-8	14.9	14.0	0.93	12.6	14.1	-1.47
Desmond Mason	58	59	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.11	13	-3	16	14.4	14.3	0.10	13.8	13.0	0.74
Mo Williams	49	48	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.18	15	-5	20	14.2	14.5	-0.31	14.1	12.9	1.15
Anthony Goldwire	56	57	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.38	-4	14	-18	14.4	14.4	0.05	13.0	14.0	-0.94
Joe Smith	58	57	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	1	8	14.0	14.9	-0.93	14.1	12.6	1.47
Dan Gadzuric	50	49	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.05	8	2	6	14.1	14.7	-0.56	14.4	12.6	1.75
Reece Gaines	15	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.35	-12	22	-34	14.9	14.3	0.64	10.9	13.9	-3.01
Calvin Booth	14	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.35	-12	22	-34	15.0	14.3	0.71	11.1	13.8	-2.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.73,0.8,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.89,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 80, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.83,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
NJN 104, WAS 123	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.89,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
SEA 88, UTA 112	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%