NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	87		Excitement	4.2 [1011]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +14.4%
Houston Rockets	115		Comeback	2.8 [770]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -12.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DerMarr Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.05	7	60%	0.01	3	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nene	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	55%	0.01	0	0.00	10	40%	-0.04
Greg Buckner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	5	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	33%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wesley Person	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	6	25%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	11	46%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.04	0.05	17	59%	0.01	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	17	37%	-0.11	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.05	0.03	21	65%	0.16	2	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.16	0.01	0.05	12	88%	0.13	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	10	65%	0.08	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	79%	0.05	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
David Wesley	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	10	48%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Torraye Braggs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	0.04	5	70%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	8	59%	-0.02	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.03
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.04	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	34.0	2.8	31.1	17.5	30.2	2.8	30.2	148.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +47.6%

DEN -4.5%

DEN -0.0%

HOU +8.5%

DEN -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.8	16.6	15.5	94.6	126.4	104.0
season	14.8	16.0		103.8	104.2
opponent	15.8	15.6		100.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.7	19.3	14.6	14.9	14.8
HOU	16.0	19.7	14.8	17.0	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DerMarr Johnson	31	32	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-31	34	13.8	15.4	-1.60	16.7	16.6	0.01
Nene	53	52	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-26	24	13.8	16.2	-2.33	15.8	17.7	-1.92
Kenyon Martin	60	60	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-26	24	13.8	16.8	-2.98	16.8	16.4	0.35
Bryon Russell	8	9	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.11	-8	-20	12	14.1	14.9	-0.78	13.6	17.0	-3.43
Andre Miller	65	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	-20	12	14.4	15.9	-1.49	16.5	17.0	-0.50
Francisco Elson	20	20	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.11	-14	-14	0	16.8	14.3	2.51	18.8	16.0	2.82
Wesley Person	24	24	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.49	-27	-1	-26	16.5	14.3	2.19	17.1	16.5	0.65
Greg Buckner	37	37	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.04	-9	-19	10	14.9	14.8	0.14	16.7	16.6	0.09
Carmelo Anthony	68	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.10	-16	-12	-4	14.7	15.1	-0.33	16.3	17.7	-1.42
Earl Boykins	55	53	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.42	-27	-1	-26	15.2	14.2	0.99	16.9	16.2	0.71
Eduardo Najera	39	38	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.48	-30	2	-32	17.0	13.2	3.75	17.3	16.2	1.15

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Padgett	53	53	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.41	33	-5	38	18.0	14.8	3.19	16.1	13.2	2.88
Dikembe Mutombo	37	38	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.33	30	-2	32	18.3	15.5	2.82	17.2	13.2	4.00
Jon Barry	43	45	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.40	32	-4	36	16.9	16.4	0.53	16.8	12.9	3.93
Tracy McGrady	73	73	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.19	20	8	12	16.5	17.1	-0.51	14.5	16.3	-1.86
Mike James	55	54	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.53	31	-3	34	17.3	15.6	1.72	15.1	14.4	0.71
David Wesley	63	65	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.10	5	23	-18	16.2	17.6	-1.38	14.8	15.0	-0.18
Ryan Bowen	10	10	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.17	7	21	-14	16.4	16.7	-0.28	12.6	15.1	-2.51
Torraye Braggs	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	25	-22	21.4	16.4	5.03	12.2	15.0	-2.70
Yao Ming	49	50	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	33	-38	14.9	18.7	-3.79	13.3	16.7	-3.45
Clar. Weatherspoon	33	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.19	-9	37	-46	15.3	17.4	-2.11	13.2	15.7	-2.49
Bob Sura	29	31	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.21	-10	38	-48	14.5	17.7	-3.18	13.1	15.7	-2.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.41,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.7,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.96,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, DET 98	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1	95.2%
WAS 103, CHI 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.61,0.7,0.77,0.82,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.98,1,0.98,0.99,1,1	94.6%
TOR 95, SAS 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.85,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%